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View Diary: Flu Stories: Is the Internet At Risk In A Pandemic? (120 comments)

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  •  Heh (0+ / 0-)

    You're citing an "expert" who completely avoids the truth. Musta learned that watching rethugs on tv. One primary criteria for this "scary scary pandemic" is that... the virus evolves to become human to human transmissible. It hasnt. It just as likely wont. Thus.. fearmongering. Sorta like.. "well you cant prove he DOESNT have WMD's!! He COULD get WMD's! RUN BE SCARED!"

    "All you have to do to qualify for human rights is to be human" An 11yo Girl.

    by cdreid on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 08:13:11 PM PST

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    •  see, but you don't know it won't ;-P (0+ / 0-)

      all you know is that it hasn't.

      all the experts, including Poland, Webster, Taubenberger, Nabarro, Monto, et al know beter than to say it won't. They. Don't. Know. That.

      Here's what we do know (Poland):

      Number 3

      This is the number of conditions necessary for pandemic influenza to occur: (1) a novel virus, (2) the ability to cause illness and (3) transmissibility from human-to-human. All three conditions have now been met, although the Achilles heel of the virus, and the only reason a pandemic has not yet occurred with A/H5N1, is the rarity and inefficiency with which human-to-human transmission occurs. While transmission has occurred from human-to-human, small-particle aerosol transmission does not appear to have occurred, nor has third and fourth generation or higher order transmission been identified [13–15]

      Now, we've never watched a pandemic develop. We don't know how long it takes or whether this is what 1918 looked like in 1913. John Oxford says (in reviewing Michael Greger's book):

      However, the book fails to confront the question I am asked daily: "Why are you so worried about 151 deaths from H5N1?" Well, go back to 1916, to Etaples in northern France, where a form of flu causing heliotrope cyanosis (a characteristic lavender coloration of the face) with a case fatality of 60% was beginning to spread. There were 145 cases. At some point in the next two years it mutated to become more infectious and 30 times less virulent. Then it killed 50 million people. Doesn't this ring a nasty bell?

      So, to state that "it hasn't, therefore it can't" is based on faith and hope. It's not, alas, based on science.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 08:30:59 PM PST

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