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View Diary: Florida House votes for 1/29 primary (302 comments)

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  •  There is another big winner (2+ / 0-)
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    PoliMorf, cosbo

    Iowa and NH.

    There is NO WAY NH is going to let Florida go the day after it.  This schedule is toast.

    What the other states don't realize is that the closer they get to NH, the more important NH will become.  
    Here is what is going to happen (based on the current Dem schedule.

    Jan 22nd - News coverage dominated by NH primary
    Jan 23rd - The news media will pick two stories from the NH results, and highlight it.  It is not possible for the press to follow more than two - which means the winner of NH in each party will get all of the press attention.
    Jan 24th - Continued fallout from NH - at least two candidates will drop out.  
    Jan 25th - The first post-NH polls come out, and will show at least a 10 point bounce in the Jan 29th states for the NH winners.
    Jan 26th - More poll driven coverage.  The NH winner's national numbers will jump.
    Jan 27th - The focus actually, and finally turns on the races in SC and Fl.  But the race is already remade.  There is no time for the other candidates to mount a cameback against the NH winner given the blact in publicity the NH winner has received.  In the 5 days since NH - something profoundly horrible has aqhppened to them - they have been ignored.

    Jan 29th: SC and Florida hold elections.  But unlike NH, which will have had over a year to judge the candidates, the voters in FL and SC will simply be pulling the lever for the candidate with the most press covererage.

    There is a natural cycle in the coverage of Presidential politics.  At first, the winners in Iowa and NH get a honeymoon period with almost uniformally positive press.  This press simply swamps anything that paid advertising can buy.  

    I have seen this myself first hand.  When I worked for Gary Hart, we won in places where we had no campaign after winning NH. In fact, if we had had this schedule in 1984, I have little doubt Hart would have won the nomination.

    Eventually, a reaction sets in, and the tone in coverage changes.  Perhaps in the age of the blog the honeymoon will not last as long.  But I doubt it.  

    •  I have also heard that (1+ / 0-)
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      despite the crush of state primaries in the last week of January, first week of February, the NH will still have an outsized impact because, from a regional point of view, any candidate who wins in NH will have far greater impact on its own region as opposed to some of the geographical larger western states who are rather isolated from their neighbors media-wise. The state that comes to mind here is Nevada.  The upshot, candidates are still pouring beaucoup bucks and spending beacoup time in NH.

      •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

        But I don't buy it.

        Take '84.  After Hart won NH, we (actually HE) won Washington two weeks later dispite having no organization and little to no advertising.

        But everything changes, and you might be right.  It is easier, for example, for the California Press to cover Nevada than NH.

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