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  •  The answer is yes. (2+ / 0-)
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    meowmissy, brklyngrl

       Although it doesn't mean that it can't be carried into the general election if not spent. All monies under $2300 will be labeled primary money so that they can go back to the well for another donation of up to $2300 for the general election.
       In John Edwards case, if approximately $1 million is designated for the general election that means that between 435 (assumes all 435 gave $4600) and 600 (assumes about 100 gave more than $2300 but not $4600) donors are now maxed out for the general election for Edwards. That's not many out of the 40,000 total contributors. It is only 1.5% of the total who have thus far made contributions. If Hillary's final numbers show that she has to hold over $5 million for the general election, then the numbers look better for JRE. $5 M means that from 2175 to 3000 are now maxed out from her 50,000.
        With Hillary's organized and highly paid professional staff, you can rest assured that at least one call has gone out to each person on her list. The key for Obama and Edwards is to use their ground team to multiply the number of donors in the next three quarters. They don't have to be large $2300 donors. Just increase the support base so that the yard signs and bumper stickers begin to appear by July-October in those key early states.
        I'm going out on the limb here but I'll bet that Hillary's hold for the general election will be $5M and that Obama will be at least $4M. If Obama truly has 80,000 plus donors, this won't hurt him. I see both Obama and Edwards as being able to expand their contributor base by a factor of 2-2.5 before the convention. A huge portion of this rise will depend on performance in the field, avoiding landmines like Obama may have hit yesterday, and statesmanship and leadership in explaining policy positions. I don't see a rise for Hillary but 20-50% because she knows her base and they are already active and working hard but have fewer and fewer sources for expansion.
        I hope this makes sense but from past primary elections both Obama and Edwards are well positioned for the next three quarters but they will need to blunt the tendency of the MSM to push those with the most money because they think they will get the lions share through advertising revenue. For them, it is not always what is best for the country but what is best for their business.

    Eisenhower- "We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without risking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage."

    by NC Dem on Mon Apr 02, 2007 at 06:11:31 AM PDT

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