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View Diary: Dollar Still Falling, Nears All-Time Lows (169 comments)

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  •  Can we please hold off with the stagflation (4+ / 0-)

    calls until it actually starts to look like the 70's.  By calling what we are seeing today stagflation, we really demean the real economic horrors that we saw during the disco era.  1-2% growth + 4-5% inflation is not stagflation.

    •  Dig some. Official inflation numbers are cooked. (5+ / 0-)

      We'll be in stagflation territory soon enough.

      "Follow the Money" ... where does the Fed get all that money anyway?

      by toddpw on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 05:47:02 AM PDT

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      •  Quit spreading this conspiracy crap (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Richard Lyon

        the inflation numbers are being reported the same way they have been since at least the early 90's if not the early 80's.  Not only are they pretty darn transparent (you can actually get the base data if you want), but many other independent private economists verify them all the time.

        •  Are you sure? (7+ / 0-)

          I´m not an expert but just a short search turned up this:

          Beginning with January 1999 data, the BLS changed to a geometric-mean-estimator method of indexing. This method does not employ the Laspeyres fixed market basket; rather, it allows consumers to adjust purchases within broad categories of goods and services due to changes in the relative prices of the goods or services within each category. The consensus of experts was that the Laspeyres method led to a CPI which systematically overestimated the price level actually paid by consumers, because consumers would substitute away from goods that increased in price in favor of similar goods with lower increases in price. The geometric-mean-estimator method was adopted to reduce this overestimation. As part of this change, the BLS reports that CPI expenditure weights are to be updated on a regular two-year schedule (BLS, "Future Schedule").

          While in the 1980s

          Until the early 1980s, the CPI used what is called the asset price method to measure the change in the costs of owner-occupied housing. The asset price method treats the purchase of an asset, such as a house, as it does the purchase of any consumer good. Because the asset price method can lead to inappropriate results for goods that are purchased largely for investment reasons, the CPI implemented the rental equivalence approach to measuring price change for owner-occupied housing. It was implemented for the CPI-U in January 1983 and for the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) in January 1985.

          Mind you, that´s got nothing to do with a conspiracy. :)
          I simply wanted to say that how inflation is calculated changes over time.

        •  asdf (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Robespierrette, sanrand

          "the inflation numbers are being reported the same way they have been since at least the early 90's if not the early 80's."

          But how about the '70s, when the stagflation actually occurred?

        •  Not conspiracy, just gov't spin really. (0+ / 0-)

          Governments do this all the time.

          Example: Hedonic Price Indices

          "Follow the Money" ... where does the Fed get all that money anyway?

          by toddpw on Wed Apr 25, 2007 at 12:05:15 AM PDT

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    •  We aren't there yet - that's where it's headed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rolandzebub

      If we don't reverse the policies that lead to stagflation we will be living with it. We aren't helpless to change the situation.

      The Iraq occupation (and huge associated budget deficits) is leading us to stagflation just as the Viet Nam war lead to stagflation.

      "It's the planet, stupid."

      by FishOutofWater on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 08:00:34 AM PDT

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    •  At least in the 70's I could pay rent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rolandzebub

      and have enough left over to spend evenings at the bar. That's no longer the case.

      Old trusty explains here:

      Good old 70's

      "I count him braver who overcomes his desires than him who conquers his enemies; for the hardest victory is over self." --Aristotle

      by java4every1 on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 08:03:14 AM PDT

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