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View Diary: Agonistic Politics: Why One State Is Best (137 comments)

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  •  Where, incidentally, are you getting (0+ / 0-)

    the polling numbers from? Because, you know, polls can be pretty misleading (as we've discussed before). So for example last November, as I say, polls showed that Yisrael Beitenu would get 20 seats - only Likud scored higher.

    •  Well... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      another American

      ...I'm not using polling numbers.  I'm using the 2006 election results.

      Yisrael Beitenu - 281,880 8.985% 11 seats

      Me'retz - 118,302 3.77% 5 seats
      Ra'am-Ta'al - 94,786 3.02% 4 seats
      Hadash - 86,092 2.74% 3 seats
      Balad - 72,066 2.30% 3 seats

      I tend to place little faith in polls, particularly within Israel.

      The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it. ~ H.L. Mencken

      by Jay Elias on Wed Apr 25, 2007 at 03:28:26 PM PDT

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      •  Oh, right (0+ / 0-)

        well, I suspect that come next election there will be some change in favour of Yisrael Beitenu (thanks in part to significant parts of the Israeli publics taking what I feel are the wrong lessons away from Lebanon and the Gaza withdrawal, as we've tlaked about briefly before).

        Hopefully, though, this shift won't be too great. More likely is that Likud will be the greatest benefactor from this change in attitudes, and indeed latest polls show that Likud would win if elections were held tomorrow (that's also down to Netanyahu's cornering of the 'Iran' market, as you noted). In any event, choosing between Likud and Yisrael Beitenu is like choosing between a smelly turd and a slightly smellier one. Sure, I'd go for the least smelly, but the difference is pretty marginal.

      •  It's been said that Israelis are the only (0+ / 0-)

        people who tell the truth to pollsters and lie at the voting box. Whatever the truth of that comment, if polls were reliable, then Shimon Peres would have been elected Prime Minister.

        Al Gore should be president.

        by another American on Wed Apr 25, 2007 at 06:49:12 PM PDT

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