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View Diary: Chuck Todd, Political Prognosticator (150 comments)

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  •  I'm not defending Todd in any way ... (7+ / 0-)

    ...but anybody who makes specific prognostications of this sort in the political world is bound to be burned. I remember a lot of people on the left who predicted Cheney was be dropped from the 2004 ticket, and that Iran would be invaded in 2004, and 2005, and 2006.

    This is why psychics make so many predictions. They can be wrong 99 times out of 100, but if they even hint in some marginal way that JFK might have serious trouble before his term is up, they get credit for having predicted he'd be assassinated in the afternoon by rifle-shots in Dallas. Political predictors would be wise to follow the same approach if they want to claim any credentials for prescience.

    •  Oh, sure. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Meteor Blades, BenGoshi, Elise

      What I was thinking, as I said in a comment above but obviously didn't make clear enough in the post, was that he needs to be willing to account for himself, to talk through why and how he was wrong, etc.  Basically to take responsibility for the times he's wrong as well as the times he's right and be willing to be accountable.  That would raise anyone in the opinions business in my estimation.

    •  and Todd can defend himself on this by pointing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Elise

      to the fact that the Democrats haven't overereached, which explains why Bush's numbers didn't bounce back.

      It reinforces the idea that Nancy and her crew are wise to tread lightly.

      just sayin

      Some jerk infected the Internet with an outright lie. It shows how easy it is to do and how credulous people are. ~ Vonnegut

      by Chrispy67 on Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 04:39:04 PM PDT

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    •  Agreed in general, but (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Meteor Blades, Elise

      this was a particularly awful prediction from Todd. Bush's strongly disapprove numbers in October 2006 were  in the 40s (if memory serves).  "Strongly" anything are people who aren't likely to change their minds, and with the way Iraq was going, the strongly disapprove numbers were only going to go up. I would've expected better from Chuck Todd (who despite this prediction is still about 1000x better than David Broder.)

      (Raising hand as someone who hasn't predicted an Iranian invasion.  Also don't think I predicted that Cheney would be dropped from the 04 ticket.)

      Visit my blog Penndit for complete TV alerts & more.

      by Newsie8200 on Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 04:43:54 PM PDT

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    •  Also, I think I mentioned this once at DKos (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Meteor Blades, BenGoshi

      but if one of the cable news channels were smart, it'd be interesting to see average folks play pundit for a day.

      ESPN had a reality show "Dream Jobs." I could totally see Hardball doing one for amateur political pundits.

      It'd actually be a step up for a 'news channel' who covered Paris Hilton as much as it did.

      Visit my blog Penndit for complete TV alerts & more.

      by Newsie8200 on Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 04:48:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  To me, it comes down to $. $ for me, that is. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      metal prophet

      See, I've been on camera a time or three (local stuff, mind you -- although an old girlfriend was in a background crowd shot of an AP pic of Gorby when he was visiting DC in the summer of '89, sooooo...) and embrace the conceit that I've got a good enough presence in front of it and all, and I can make wild-ass and incredibly wrong predictions (although less wild-ass and incredibly wrong than "old timers" like Todd) and I just want to know why I can't get paid the big bucks to be on the SMBS's (Sunday Morning Blather Shows) or be invited to be on Matthews show every other night like Coulter, or something.

      What am I doing wrong?  I could use the money.

      BenGoshi
      ____________________________________________________

      P.S. -- But note, it's really not about "me".

      The distinction that goes with mere office runs far ahead of the distinction that goes with actual achievement. H.L. Mencken

      by BenGoshi on Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 04:59:46 PM PDT

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