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View Diary: levers and fulcrum points: the death penalty and marriage equality (29 comments)

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  •  I don't mean Edwards more than other (0+ / 0-)

    top-tier candidates.  They all favor an incrementalist approach to my civil rights. I suspect that in their hearts they all in fact do want me to have those rights. (Eventually.  If it doesn't interfere with other priorities.)  And they are all correct that in the general election we'll vote them because we'd be crazy not to.  

    Here's one (depressing) source on why "the math" is not too favorable at this time:

    New Republic: Don't Press Dems On Same-Sex Marriage

    According to a Quinnipiac poll released the week of the gay debate, 34 percent of voters in the crucial swing state of Ohio said that if a candidate were endorsed by a gay organization it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate, while only 10 percent said it would make them more likely to vote for him (voters in the other swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania responded similarly). Gay marriage is still opposed by a substantial majority of the country. In the past 10 years, 26 states have passed constitutional amendments banning gay marriage, and a May 2007 poll found about 60 percent of Americans opposed to gay marriage.

    There are favorable numbers that show 50%+ accepting gay marriage among YOUNGER voters.  But "average" voters include lots of folks "not there yet".  

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Tue Sep 04, 2007 at 03:57:24 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  how many of those 34% are the republican base? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kid oakland

      besides, 34% + 10% still leaves an ambivalent 56%.

      combine that with the 10% that is pro-gay organizations, and that leaves you with 2/3 of the voters that aren't against gays.

      and that's with absolutely zero leadership or persuasion on the part of democrats. people who ahve no faith in being able to convince the electorate of their vision really shouldn't be in politics.

      surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

      by wu ming on Tue Sep 04, 2007 at 07:38:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What about the 60% against marriage? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wu ming

        This is not an academic question for me.  I just went all the way to Canada to celebrate my 10th year of marriage with a legally sanctioned marriage.  It was nice, but it would've been nicer if it was from my own nation.

        I'm glad that 66 % are unwilling to identy as being "against" gays.  That IS progress.  Thanks in part to the courage of those in the vanguard of coming out.  And 40% ok with marriage is progress too.  Your real ambivalents are that 16% in the middle.  They don't want to admit they are bigots, but they are also nervous about "real" marriage.  

        Would this fragile central segment be wooed by a bold and principled progressive stand?  Or would they be stampeded?  That's the %64 million question.

        "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

        by lgmcp on Tue Sep 04, 2007 at 08:43:18 PM PDT

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        •  well, what are the trends in massachusetts? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lgmcp

          just a couple of years ago, the same arguments were being made, but with civil unions instead of marriages. lo and behold, the response to dean taking the plunge in vermont and everything after was a speeding up of the % of acceptance of civil unions AND gay marriage.

          if we push to link marriage equality with other forms of equality - racial, sexual, ethnic, linguistic, disability, economic - we'll slowly win other opver to our greater point (that all people are deserving of equality and dignity). and the kids are already tipping the scales, and will increasingly do so as they enter the ranks of the electorate.

          the biggest way to grease the slide of a stampede is to cringe in fear when it comes, and try to distance yourself from your people and your principles.

          surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

          by wu ming on Tue Sep 04, 2007 at 11:15:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You are asking the wrong question (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lgmcp

          Hillary is doing quite well fundraising among gay americans.

          I think the question is what keeps John Edwards from taking a strong stance on marriage equality that might garner him support among those who support gay rights?

          k/o: politics and culture

          by kid oakland on Tue Sep 04, 2007 at 11:36:54 PM PDT

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          •  Now THAT's a good question. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kid oakland

            I was pleased with Edwards when he was the first and most unhesitating to refute Peter Pace's "immoral" slur.  He was the best of the lot, on that one.  

            But then later he gave out the "Christian principles" against marriage, and I started going "hmmm".  He was almost my preferred candidate, and MAYBE still could be, but I sure didn't like that one.

            "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

            by lgmcp on Wed Sep 05, 2007 at 07:18:27 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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