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View Diary: UK Poll Confirms 1 Million Estimate of Iraq Death Toll (21 comments)

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  •  Thank you for this ... (6+ / 0-)

    ...I had missed the original report. And thanks for taking the time to examine thoroughly what those numbers likely mean.

    Tim Lambert at Deltoid, who has done excellent work debunking Lancet study critics, has this to say:

    My back of the envelope calculation puts the 95% confidence interval at 1.1-1.3 million. This seems consistent with the second Lancet study giving 600,000 violent deaths when you take into account the amount of time that has passed since then. The surveyors in this study did not verify the deaths by asking to see d[e]ath certificates, so this could bias the results upwards, but the experience in the two Lancet studies suggests that the great majority of people who report a death can verify with a death certificate. The number of households in Iraq has dropped by maybe 5-10% since 2005 because of all the people that have fled the country, so 1.2 million may be a little high, but it's likely that the number is now one million dead and another million injured as a result of the war.

    Kudos, Robert. My only criticism: I'd figure a way to get that 1 million-plus figure into my headline if I were you.

    "When shifting paradigms, it is important to put in the clutch." -- Patricia Limerick

    by Meteor Blades on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 12:41:05 PM PDT

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