Skip to main content

View Diary: Meta-analysis of all state polls (47 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Permutations (none)
    You are right, but your scenario is just one of thousands of possible swing-state outcomes. The calculation I have posted considers all possible outcomes in 17 swing states (131,072 possibilities) and calculates the probability of each one.

    That having been said, several of your states are not considered swing states. That would be a hard calculation: 50 states makes for 1.12 quadrillion (1,125,899,906,842,624) possibilities. Since the current likelihood of a Virginia or North Carolina win is near zero, these do not factor significantly into an unbiased calculation.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

  • Recommended (180)
  • Community (72)
  • Civil Rights (51)
  • Baltimore (44)
  • Elections (40)
  • Bernie Sanders (38)
  • Culture (38)
  • Economy (34)
  • Texas (32)
  • Law (31)
  • Labor (29)
  • 2016 (29)
  • Environment (27)
  • Hillary Clinton (27)
  • Education (23)
  • Rescued (22)
  • Freddie Gray (21)
  • Barack Obama (21)
  • Politics (21)
  • Health Care (20)
  • Click here for the mobile view of the site