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View Diary: Meta-analysis of all state polls (47 comments)

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  •  Comparing state polls with each other (none)
    Another way around the problem of state vs. national polls is to do something more limited, namely compare state polls with each other. This would allow states to be arranged in a rank order, ranging from most Democratic-leaning to most Republican-leaning. Although this order might change a bit over time, it would give a rough rule-of-thumb about which states present the juiciest targets.

    Currently, the rank order among big swing states is

    D <-- MN - MI - FL - PA - WI - OH - MO --> R

    Since the current probabilities of a Kerry win in three prize states are FL 98%, PA 89% and OH 26%, this suggests that PA and OH are the best targets for activism such as voter registration and get-out-the-vote. This may explain why America Coming Together has been so attentive to Ohio.

    •  Re: Comparing state polls with each other (none)
      "Another way around the problem of state vs. national polls is to do something more limited, namely compare state polls with each other."

      No argument from me on this one.  Good idea.

      And one polling note from your site:

      "Bush approval rating (<48 means he is toast, >52 means we are toast; in between is uncharted territory)"

      I think Bush is actually in a weaker position than his approval number would show.  I think the crucial number this year is his "Re-elect" number, which has been stuck around 43%.  There is an unusually large segment of the electorate that gives Bush a positive approval rating, but is going to vote for Kerry.

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