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View Diary: Meta-analysis of all state polls (47 comments)

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  •  Re: Data sources (none)
    "The critic in question seems to be advocating a more complex analysis involving the use of both national and state polls."

    To some extent this is true.  But I'm also saying that you are drawing overly broad conclusions from limited data.

    To return once again to the Iowa example:

    I look at the two non-ZI polls showing Kerry up by less than the MOE, and I see a snapshot of a swing state barely leaning Kerry.

    You see no polls showing Bush ahead, and you see a snapshot of a 'Certain Kerry' state.

    Maybe we're arguing semantics, maybe not.

    "The Kerry and Bush campaigns probably employ consultants to do what I have done, with almost certainly the same conclusions."

    See, this is where I really disagree with you.  If you watch where the campaigns are spending their money, they have some very different ideas of which states are battlegrounds than you do.

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