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View Diary: NE-Sen: Draft Kleeb picking up momentum (66 comments)

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  •  I don't think that analysis is correct. (0+ / 0-)

    Basically, Kleeb needs to win something (anything!)to have the gravitas to win a Senate seat.  As it stands now, he is running against someone with name recognition and proved ability to win statewide, which means he is basically doomed.  It would make a lot of sense to run for a statwide office and use that as a jumping off place, as I think if he gets too many loses with no wins, his political career is over.  In short, he has been put in a terrible position.

    Also, the Republican primaries will be a cakewalk for Johanns.  Bruning is widely seen as a stooge and a grandstander.  Even the crazies who write on the comment boards of the local papers think he is nuts.

    •  Actually, Bruning has a good following in NE (0+ / 0-)

      Don't let the NRSS fool you.  Bruning could very well pull off the upset.  It would take a lot but Johanns in a position for that to happen.

      Why do you think Bush is coming to Nebraska in December?

      •  Two things (0+ / 0-)
        1. Is there any polls showing that Bruning has a chance?
        1. I'm skeptical that Kleeb could even beat Bruning in Nebraska in 2008.  I think HRC would have to get about 42-44% for Kleeb to win that matchup, and I think HRC will have trouble doing better than 40%.

        Still a narrow loss to Bruning would be a good thing for Kleeb.  But a bad loss(20+%) to Johanns may end his career.   If there is a real chance for Bruning to be the nominee, Kleeb has a good reason to run.  

        I believe that Bob Kerrey was the only guy who could have won this race.  (And I think he might well have)

        •  No public polling, (0+ / 0-)

          but I tangentially know someone who knows Bruning. Bruning claims the national Party is pressuring him to drop out of the race because (they claim) his polling is terrible.  He claims that his polling shows he is doing great and they just want to avoid embarrassing Johanns. Considering that just ring untrue, and considering Bruning's tenuous grasp on reality, I'm inclined to believe the national party.

          If Bruning wins, Kleeb should absolutely be in the race and would have a good chance.  However, I think that there is a better chance of Kleeb winning the seat than Bruning winning the primary.

      •  Where is this Bruning following? (0+ / 0-)

        I can't prove it as there has been no polling, but from my dealing with Nebraska Republicans (which is pretty extensive), I find the idea that he is popular laughable.  He was seen as a fresh face three or four years ago, but with three major scandals in one year (the prominent promotion of himself in his "internet safety" PSAs, his bumbling of the gas price issue blamed on an intern, and the whole Nelnet debacle) he has jumped the shark.

    •  It's not gonna be a "cakewalk" for Johanns. (0+ / 0-)

      Brunning will fight dirty.  Johanns will win but he'll be badly bruised.

      IMO, you're wrong about Kleeb needing gravitas.  Nebraskans don't need to see someone serve time in some lower elected office to earn the right to run for a high office.  This isn't New York or Illinois.

      I want to live in the future, not in the past.

      by Involuntary Exile on Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 12:00:50 PM PST

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      •  Look at who wins Senate seats in Nebraska. (0+ / 0-)

        Kleeb needs the gravitas because he is a young, never-elected, Ivy League educated newly appointed college professor who has lived in the state for just a few years (3? 4?).  IF he was 50 years old, IF he was a business leader, IF he had lived here for 20 years, prior office wouldn't be as necessary.  The only Senator even remotely in a similar place, that I can think of, was Hazel Abel - and that was such an odd situation that happened over 50 years ago.

        •  This isn't going to be like any other election. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          If the political climate were traditional, you'd be right, but it's not.  People in Nebraska want change, maybe not as much as the country as a whole, but then Kleeb doesn't need 66% to get elected.  IMO, there hasn't been a national political climate like this since 1980, and then it was the other way around with voters tossing Dems on their ears.  I think a fresh face, even one without previous experience, could go far, maybe farther than ever before, simply because of the mood of the voters.

          I want to live in the future, not in the past.

          by Involuntary Exile on Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 12:30:57 PM PST

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          •  Again, no evidence of that. (0+ / 0-)

            Nebraskans want a change from Bush, but they are totally willing to elect Republicans who are not him.  Look at 2006 (which was arguably worse, as the election was just after the Foley scandal).  Two fresh faces and one political veteran could have been elected.  Instead the three Republican incumbents won. As Bush will be safely off the ticket and nearly out of office in 2008, I think it is quite possible for it to be a worse year for the Dems in NE.

            •  What? The '06 political climate arguably worse... (0+ / 0-)

              than today because of the Foley scandal?  You're kidding, right?  $3.10/gal. gas (and unlikely to be below $3 on election day), increased heating costs, increasing food costs, decreasing home values, decreasing home sales, continuing wage stagnation, continuing Repug sex and corruption scandals, continuing body counts from Iraq, a war with no end in sight, a likely pro-choice Repug presidential candidate -- the Foley scandal overshadows all of these in terms of electoral climate in Nebraska?  I don't think so.

              I was a volunteer for Maxine Moul, the one veteran you must be referring to, and we all knew she had next to no chance of winning NE-02.  Why?  Because Jeff Fortenberry is young, attractive, with a young, attractive family, and very strongly anti-abortion, anti-stem-cell-research.  Maxine's over 60 (you won't find her DOB anywhere, but she graduated from UNL in 1969) and looks like a typical grandma. Though she was Lieutenant Governor for 3 years (1990-1993) people didn't remember her.  She'd been too overshadowed by Ben Nelson to leave much of an impression on the electorate.  To say her chance of defeating Fortenberry in '06 was better than Kleeb's is of winning an open senate seat in '08 is the same as saying Nebraska Dems should just fold their tents and go home without fielding a candidate - or bothering to campaign for the Democratic presidential nominee for that matter.  Heck, if things are going to be so rosy for the Republicans in Nebraska because Bush won't be on the ticket, why should we bother to slate any candidates at all?  Hell, let's just throw in the towel and let the Republicans run unopposed in all the races.  We're practically doing that now anyway.  It'd save me the time and money I'll be wasting on what you seem to believe will be a counterproductive effort.

              I want to live in the future, not in the past.

              by Involuntary Exile on Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 03:29:41 PM PST

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