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View Diary: U.S. Interests, PNAC and the Bush Doctrine (195 comments)

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  •  win? (2+ / 0-)
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    Linda Wood, truong son traveler

    Let's assume that the Iranians have given orders to their anti-shipping missile sites to "launch on warning" and/or "launch if there's evidence of a US attack" and/or "launch if higher command authority unavailable". We can assume this because they've got rocks in their heads of they haven't done this.

    Let's assume that the primary missile targets are supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz with secondary targets as anybody else's oil infrastructure within missile range. Why? Because sinking tankers and destroying infrastructure does more damage to the US capability to make war than destroying a US Navy fleet or two would.

    So at this point, war means at best that 1/3 of the world's oil is no longer available via the Strait of Hormuz. And that the US fighter / bomber / cruise missile strikes just blew up a lot of unoccupied missile sites with empty launch racks.

    We can assume that the USAF and Navy pilots successfully destroyed government facilities, both military and civilian.

    So America sends in ground forces and discovers that instead of troops who are totally unmotivated because they expect a bad government to be toppled, a new elected government that is actually representative, and a Marshall Plan rebuilding, they have troops fighting to the death to make sure what happened to Iraq doesn't happen in Iran, or at least they won't have to stay alive to watch it happen. And in every nominally pacified area, the IEDs and suicide bombings start within hours. And when and if US troops finally get to the oil fields and infrastructure, they find it's all on fire.

    Perhaps we can "win", but just what is it are we going to "win"?

    Looking for intelligent energy policy alternatives? Try here.

    by alizard on Sat Nov 24, 2007 at 02:42:32 AM PST

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