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View Diary: Could the 2008 Election be Like the 1932 Election? (339 comments)

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  •  No. 2008 will not be like 1932. (6+ / 0-)

    Your average American swing voter is not ready to look themselves in the mirror and admit that the ideology that drove them to vote for republicans in the last 20 years was a con job, and they were made fools of.

    2008 will be more like 1968 or 1912:  a fed up electorate votes for change, and the ship of state slowly begins to turn on a new tack -- that won't come to fruition until several election cycles later.

    Cheers.

    "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

    by New Deal democrat on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 04:19:36 PM PST

    •  Unlike This Comment... (0+ / 0-)

      ...I'll be bringing data to the discussion.  And the data is clearly in my favor.  

      The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

      by Dana Houle on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 04:28:03 PM PST

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      •  We'll see. (0+ / 0-)

        When I have a few hours to spare, I'll dig up and post data.

        I don't have a few hours to spare right now.

        Cheers.

        "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

        by New Deal democrat on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 04:39:29 PM PST

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      •  Actually, I only needed 10 minutes. Data here: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Marie

        The 2 most transformative elections in the 20th century were 1932 and 1980.  Both happened in times of economic extremis.

        Let's have a lookie at the chart, shall we?  Wow, lookee here, in 1932 there was a 10% decline in prices and in the GDP in one year!

        In 1980, we had the worst inflation of the entire century, and the worst recession since World War 2.

        So, what do we have at the moment to compare with that?  3.5% inflation and +3.9% GDP, that's what.

        Now, things could still turn sour.  In fact, I diaried on the direction of the economy just today.   But they're not there yet.

        I don't appreciate the insulting tone of your response.  But if you as a front-pageer are going to insult me, make sure you don't bring a knife to an economic gunfight.

        Cheers.

        "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

        by New Deal democrat on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 05:05:09 PM PST

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        •  Who Said It's an ECONOMIC... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          badger

          ..."knife fight?"  I'm talking about politics and elections.  You've brought one indices, and two data points, that are contradictory (as the 1932 election was followed by the New Deal, while the 1980 election was preceded by the second largest Dem majorities since 1937 and was followed in 1982 by a huge swing back to the Democrats).

          Monocausal explanations of political phenomena or simple-minded.  

          The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

          by Dana Houle on Sun Nov 18, 2007 at 05:18:34 PM PST

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          •  Wrong again (0+ / 0-)

            The 1980 election replaced the democratic majority that had been in place since the New Deal in with the first republican Senate majority in 30 years.  Reagan's agenda that followed thereafter speaks for itself, and I'll let the readers of this blog decide who is being simple-minded about whether what followed 1980 was trivial or not.

            You don't get transformative elections until and unless the electorate by a substantial and durable majority decides they want to transform something.  When the economy is killing them, that's all the explanation you need.

            I am disappointed that a front-pager immediately and twice resorts to ad hominem attacks.

            "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

            by New Deal democrat on Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 03:22:18 AM PST

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