Skip to main content

View Diary: Could the 2008 Election be Like the 1932 Election? (Part 2) (218 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I think you're too low on the Senate side... (6+ / 0-)

    conservative estimates are that Dems will pick up 4 seats... with the more liberal estimates going up to, and possibly above, 10 seats.

    I haven't been following the House as closely.

    •  I should say... (4+ / 0-)

      I hope you're too low on the Senate side... and the House side as well.

      :-)

    •  VA & NH look very good. (6+ / 0-)

      NM and CO are battlegrounds - we'll be lucky to get these 4 and hold LA.

      Where else can we pick up?

      AK - Stevens problem - but still a long shot.

      ID - too conservative, despite Craig issues.

      NC - maybe if Edwards runs for NC Senate seat.

      ME - Collins is very strong and well established.

      OR - We don't seem to have a strong candidate in OR.

      I wouldn't be surprised to see us pick up VA & NH and NM or CO, but lose LA, giving us a net gain of 2.

      Americans are too disillusioned with the Dems to give us more than 2-4 net gain.

      And the Iraq war is becoming less of an issue, it seems.

      However, if the economy tanks, and we go into recession, there might be a big Dem landslide, depending on who the repug nominee is.

      •  I don't think that... (6+ / 0-)

        American's are disillusioned with Dems.. they're disillusioned with Congress in general.

      •  Psst (6+ / 0-)

        Reading the piece before commenting is always a sure wa to make yourself look more informed.  You're allowed to comment in complete contradiction of much of what's in the piece, but it would be nice if you didn't simply ignore it.

        The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

        by Dana Houle on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 03:16:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Last year it looked highly unlikely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell

        we would pick up six, but a wave of momentum carried us through to the majority.

        VA and NH are practically locks right now, NM and MN (which seemed to have slipped your mind) probably lean Dem, ME and OR are toss-ups, and AK, NC, and CO are races we could win if everything breaks right.  Those are nine races that are within reach.

        The notion that not talking to people is somehow punishment to them is ridiculous. Barack Obama, July 23, 2007

        by litho on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 03:19:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, all are in reach - hope Dems win all 9! (0+ / 0-)

          I do think we'll win at least one of these:

          MN, ME, OR, CO (maybe 2 of 3).

          Maybe one of AK, NC, even KY.

          My prediction is 2-4, but I think it could be as low as 1 if we lose LA and as high as 6 if we win VA, NH, NM, CO, and 2 of these 3: MN, OR, ME.

          It would be great to have 55 Dems, Bernie Sanders, and then Lieberman can do whatever he wants to, probably will support the Dem leadership, and we won't have to count on the "blue dogs" in the Senate any longer.

        •  my senate race diary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          vets74

          my diaryin october

          Summary

          weeks ago I did a summary showing the Dems to take 10 Senate races,
          Now, i'm looking at 13-17

          I know it's still optimistic, but, I see the Dems looking at 13+-4

          George Bush i sLiving proof of the axiom "Never send a boy to do a man's job" E -2.25 S -4.10

          by nathguy on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 05:12:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  OR (0+ / 0-)

        Actually, in Oregon Speaker of the (Oregon) House Jeff Merkley and former DOJ attorney Steve Novick do well in preliminary matchup polls against Gordon Smith. It's still early, of course, Oregon doesn't even have its primary until May, and Smith's got a huge load of campaign cash, but he's not all that popular.

        I think there will be a staggering loss of human life out of all proportion to the stakes involved... Sen. George McGovern, March 1965

        by darrelplant on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 03:23:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kaloo, kalay oh happy day! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NogodsnomastersMary

        Um, despite that things are looking "better" in Iraq (and I'd dispute that claim, no matter the headlines) recent polls show that even tho there's some slight increase in the number of Americans who agree with you, the number who want troops out of Iraq has gone up.

        The tea leaves still read: Democratic Party.

        Barring some massive fuckup on the part of Democrats, or very major vote fraud from the dark force Rethugs.

      •  Too disillusioned with the Dems? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        smintheus

        What, they're suddenly going to fall back in love with Republicans? Because of the strong, effective leadership we've gotten from the GOP lately?

        As noted in the story, the Democratic brand name is significantly stronger than the Republican name is now.

        Joe Lieberman likes to be called an "Independent Democrat". I like being called a "sexual dynamo".

        by Arjun Jaikumar on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 03:34:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Eh, Not Exactly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larry Kestenbaum

        VA and NH do look very good, that's two.  Franken is already closing in on Coleman, and has outraised him the last two quarters, that's three.  Udall looks very strong in early polls against either Republican candidate, that's four.  The other Udall outpolls Schaffer in CO, that's five.  I agree that Collins still looks to be a strong candidate, but she is going to be up against a well funded Democrat with good name recognition.  As far as other possibilities, Smith and McConnell have approval ratings significantly lower than 50%, always a bad sign for an incumbent.  Stevens will retire, or be indicted, or both, another opportunity.  And I think we have a shot in TX and NC (if we find a candidate in NC).

        So I think nine is a stretch, but certainly possible, and certainly five or six is a real solid prediction in a wave election.

      •  We take NM and CO easily (0+ / 0-)

        If Salazar could win in CO in 2004, then we take it in 2008 easily as a result of the negative mood in the country toward Republicans.  Same situation in NM which is more Democratic than CO.  Udall takes that one easily as far as I'm concerned.  

        I say we pick up four seats easily, with 6 perhaps being more likely.  

        Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

        by Asak on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 07:41:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site