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View Diary: Could the 2008 Election be Like the 1932 Election? (Part 2) (218 comments)

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  •  huh? (1+ / 0-)
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    Larry Kestenbaum

    Democrats gaining seats in the Senate and the House?  Got it.  Democrats winning the Presidency?  Absolutely possible.  A blow out election win for the Democratic President?  How?  You assuming a Hillary vs Brownback with Nagel and Paul each launching separate independent bids?  

    If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

    by JakeC on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:19:56 AM PST

    •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

      As for me, I'm very interested in the 1932 vs. 1952 debate, both for current-politics and historical reasons, but I'm not advocating for either.

      Yes, election optimism for a party can lead to hubris and complacency, but it also becomes self-fulfilling through candidate recruitment.

      I'm kind of assuming Hillary vs. Mitt, with no significant third-party candidates, but it doesn't really matter much who the nominees are.  Republicans are in seriously bad shape right now, and the most plausible scenarios for the coming year point even further downward for them.

      The Republican nominee will have a lot of trouble distinguishing himself from the incumbent in the White House (see HHH and LBJ in 1968, when Democrats were stronger than the Republicans are today).  If Mitt's vote is largely confined to the GOP base, Hillary would win bigger than Bill did in 1996.

      Would two consecutive good Democratic years signal a realignment?  Maybe.  As others have said, a lot depends on what we do with it.

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