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View Diary: Is Obama now the frontrunner? On the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. (135 comments)

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  •  hmm... (1+ / 0-)
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    Do Tell

    In terms of ferreting out meaning based on margin of victory vs. winning or losing, how often does the winner of Iowa lose New Hampshire?  Another important stat is how often the winner of either (or both) wins the overall nomination. Not sure if either would end up being important, but it could be.

    We're trying to use hard data (even if some of it is gathered based on stated preferences) to understand some occasionally counterintuitive or irrational behavior.  I'm reminded of something I read on here months back about some guy supporting Clinton not because of her policies, but because he wanted to support a winner.  People like that can be fickle and switch once their own primaries draw closer.

    Jumping on the bandwagon: (-3.63, -3.03) - Does that make me part of the right wing here?

    by someone else on Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 04:09:36 AM PST

    •  The three Dems that won NH and lost the nom (4+ / 0-)

      Since 1960 are as follows:

      Muskie in '72, who beat McGovern.  However, McGovern got 37% of the vote, which was considered a huge upset, and Muskie's campaign sort of tanked from there.  Ironically, even though Muskie won, it was this race that sort of made the New Hampshire primary as important as it is today.

      Tsongas in '92, who beat Clinton.  Again, this was considered a moral victory for Clinton because he came reasonably close to Tsongas in spite of Tsongas being from Massachusetts, whereas Clinton was coming off the whole Gennifer Flowers thing.  This is when he became the Comeback Kid.  Also, that year was a little weird because nobody challenged Tom Harkin in Iowa.

      Hart in '84, who beat Mondale.  Hart wound up losing the nomination with a scandal of his own, but the New Hampshire victory gave him a huge boost in the polls -- on the order of 30 points nationally -- and he became the frontrunner for a while until he befell a scandal of his own.

      So, even when New Hampshire doesn't predict the nominee, it does an awful lot to shake up the race.  

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