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View Diary: Is Obama now the frontrunner? On the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. (135 comments)

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  •  The time between the two (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nisleib, MBNYC, poblano

    (IA and NH) is shorter this time than ever before, so that may play hell with the predictive value of previous IA-NH results, especially with IA right before a weekend full of talking heads expounding thereon. (Usually, they have had nearly a week to think about it before Sunday arrives. This time, it'll be more much recent news.)

    Nonetheless, very interesting stuff. Rec'd.

    Electing conservatives is like hiring a carpenter who thinks hammers are evil.

    by bwintx on Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 05:13:20 AM PST

    •  There's also a debate between IA and NH (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bwintx, MBNYC

      Could be very interesting.  I can somewhat imagine a candidate going way negative if they feel it's their only chance to win.

    •  In my research (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bwintx

      I found only 1 case where the bounce took longer than 72 hours: 1984.

      In every other case (2004, 1996, 1988 GOP and Dem, 1980) the bounce was completed in 48-72 hours.

      The shortened cycle makes the bounce more important - since there will be less time to comeback.

      What may happen, though, is that the National Bounce may not be as big since New Hampshire will not dominate the news for 8 days, but only 5.  

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