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View Diary: Is Obama now the frontrunner? On the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. (135 comments)

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  •  paying attention (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    poblano, pamelabrown

    The important thing to remind ourselves is that if we go out into the general voting population in most states in the Union, then most people have not yet started thinking about who to support.  Even in New Hampshire a plurality of voters are still undecided.

    For those of us who are committed to a candidate or reading about politics on the blogs all the time, it is hard to remember that many people haven't heard much about them.  It can be even harder to remember that they don't feel the need to commit to them early enough to persuade other people to commit to them.

    My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
    Philly for Obama

    by Luam on Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 05:31:35 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  This also shows that the ground game counts (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Luam, NearlyNormal

      Just a couple extra points here and there in IA and NH makes a huge difference in the results, given where we're at right now.

      So the idea is not for everyone to go all Fred Thompson for a couple of weeks and say "Hey, we'll just spin the roulette wheel and see what happens" -- we should keep fighting for our candidates.

      I also came across an exit poll in Iowa that said roughly 1/4 of voters made up their mind essentially on the last day, another 1/4 in the last week, another 1/4 in the last month, and only the remaining 1/4 before the last month.  Now, this race is a little more -- maybe a lot more -- stable than 2004.  But at the very least, people should recognize that some of the momentum shifts we've seen in both the Dem and GOP recent weeks are more the rule than the exception.

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