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View Diary: Is Obama now the frontrunner? On the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. (135 comments)

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  •  Cool diary (3+ / 0-)
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    stevej, poblano, CooperCraigM

    But I don't think you can draw hard or even tentative conclusions like that based on the limited sample size.  How have the internet and gas prices, among other things, changed results?

    Iowa
    First, let's start with the fact that Obama's Iowa support is probably overstated because (1) his demographic skews young, and (a) younger voters still tend not to show up generally and (b) Iowa colleges will still be out on break, and (2) as Steve Gilliard always used to say, people have a tendency to forget to vote for black candidates.  Next, let's layer on the fact that Edwards has been organizing there for years, and Clinton is tapping into the Vilsack machine.

    New Hampshire
    I think Walter Mondale is a pretty strong case for the ability of an establishment candidate to wear down a reform candidate over time.  Bush also had no trouble in recovering from a NH loss in 2000 (and South Carolina is set up to play a similar role this year and there's no reason to believe that Democrats are any more likely than Republicans to benefit from a bandwagon effect).  

    All that said, winning NH is a lot more important than winning Iowa, it's certainly better than losing, and all things being equal, it's a pretty solid advantage.  And, of course, Hart and McCain did not have much money to leverage their NH win into more.  That's why Obama probably stands to gain from a NH win more than Edwards.  However, Edwards also has advantages now that Hart and McCain didn't have.

    When the disembodied voice on C-SPAN calls you pussies, you're probably pussies.

    by DelRPCV on Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 06:05:20 AM PST

    •  Mondale v Hart, 1984 (0+ / 0-)

      Wasn't Hart worn down after the NH primary rather than before?  From what I've read 1984 was supposed to be a two-way race between Mondale and John Glenn, and Hart's late rise in NH was very surprising.

      I guess this just proves your point, which is that each cycle is unique -- something I don't disagree with at all.  Hence, the probabilistic nature of the assessment.  

      •  Yes - that was my point (0+ / 0-)

        Not every cycle was like or is going to be like 2004, when Kerry leveraged the Iowa win into a New Hampshire win and the New Hampshire win into inevitability.  Kerry was the establishment candidate.  A lot of people (myself included) predicted in 2002 that he would ultimately be the nominee.

        When the disembodied voice on C-SPAN calls you pussies, you're probably pussies.

        by DelRPCV on Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 09:30:03 AM PST

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