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View Diary: Is Obama now the frontrunner? On the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. (135 comments)

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  •  I'll grant you that (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    taylormattd, kpardue, snout, redhaze

    There's no doubt that Dean would have been way ahead if we plugged in the results from something like December 1, 2003.  At the same time, the model really only advertises itself to work for the polls just immediately before Iowa, so I'm not sure if it undermines the validity of the model so much we're arguably using the model improperly.  Hence the disclaimer about "if the elections began today".

    At the same time, there is evidence that preferences are much harder this year than they were in 2004, at least in the early states.  So while I think that nearly everyone underestimates the extent to which things can change on a dime, I think those changes are somewhat less likely than they were four years ago.

    •  Dem Primary Voters Like All Three Major Candidates (0+ / 0-)
      At the same time, there is evidence that preferences are much harder this year than they were in 2004, at least in the early states.

      I'm not so sure about that.

      Most of the polling I've seen indicates low attachment to choices in the early states.  In addition, all three of the major candidates have very strong fav/unfav ratings in all of the early states.

      Specifically, check how positively all three major candidates are viewed in NH.  Iowa results are going to utterly remake the New Hampshire race, which I think a lot of folks aren't fully understanding quite yet.

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