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View Diary: Is Obama now the frontrunner? On the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. (135 comments)

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  •  Embrace the uncertainty ;-) (1+ / 0-)
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    Inland

    If this were a baseball game, we could make a prediction saying one team would win two-thirds of the time and the other would win one-third of the time ... that's sort of where we're at right now.

    Except, this isn't like a baseball game because we're not just watching -- we have a chance to influence the outcome.  Remember the disclaimer that I gave in the diary -- this is a prediction of what would happen tomorrow if we fast-forwarded in time, not necessarily what's actually going to happen in three weeks.  And even if the election were held tomorrow, we'd have no real good idea about just what would happen -- Obama has a pretty good chance at winning the nomination without any additional momentum.  I do think that Edwards needs to make up some ground in NH or he's going to something of a long shot -- even if he wins Iowa -- but his supporters still have three very important weeks of work left to do as well.

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