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View Diary: Is Obama now the frontrunner? On the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire. (135 comments)

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  •  Here's my gut take (1+ / 0-)
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    rapcetera
    1. If Obama wins big in Iowa, he wins the nomination.
    1. If Clinton is in third place in Iowa, she loses the nomination to Obama.
    1. Edwards has no shot at coming in higher than second place in Iowa or at winning the nomination.
    1. The most likely outcome in Iowa is a small win for Obama with Clinton in second place.
    1. Who wins if #4 is correct is hard to tell, since Clinton has some very big leads in many states-although the momentum is definitely on Obama's side, so I'm going to have to say he wins, but it's a very tough call.

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