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  •  A drunken Luntz reveals:"Kerry will win" (4.00)
    Thomas F. Schaller at a Democratic convention party reports in the progressive Internet magazine Gadflyer.com:

    Luntz Spilz

    From the blog:

    Anyway, Luntz seems a bit tipsy, but there he is, a few feet away. I cannot resist.

    "What do you think?" I ask him, in a tone that indicates that I'm not talking about last night's Sox-Yankees brawl.

    "Kerry will win," he says. I feel myself jump back slightly.

    "Wow," I say. "How can you be so sure?"

    "Bush's numbers on the war are bad, and it's spreading."

    I follow-up: "So, it's that simple -- 'It's the war, stupid'?"

    "Well, not that simple...but basically, yes."

    "Ok, then, so what's the save-all scenario for Bush? Is there some way he manages to pull it out?"

    "Only by making Kerry look bad, inconsistent."

    "The flip-flopper thing," I say, seeking clarification.

    "Yes," Luntz said. "But even that may not do it."

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