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View Diary: Could the 2008 Election be Like the 1932 Election? (Part 3) (321 comments)

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  •  Like in Indiana??? (0+ / 0-)

    Yes, indeed.
    There are fewer potential pick-ups,
    And some tough seats to hold as you point out.
    10 seats would be a big Dem gain.

    •  I can still see an easy 20 seat pickup (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      johnnygunn

      Special elections do not really signify what is going to happen in the next general election.  We saw this in 03/04.  There are still a number of endangered Republicans that are in competitive districts.  

      If there is another wave we can pickup up to 20 more seats.  I'm not saying we will.  I'd be happy with 10 seats, but I do think 20 is possible.  

      Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

      by Asak on Sun Dec 16, 2007 at 09:14:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  As long as we dont lose seats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        johnnygunn

        Ill be happy at this point.  

      •  Twenty Seats - (0+ / 0-)

        Will be tough.

        There are only about 32 GOP seats vulnerable (<10% margin) <br>And 31 Dem pick-ups plus 4 Dem close calls at risk.

        For the Dems to pick up 20 seats they would have to win maybe 25 of the GOP seats and lose only 5 of their own.

        •  Some of those seats (0+ / 0-)

          Democrats picked up are likely safe in 2008.  Seats like IA-01, IA-02, IN-02, IN-08, KY-03, PA-07, PA-08, NH-02, NY-24, FL-22, CT-02, VT-AL and probably NC-11 are all seats that Democrats are likely to hold onto easily.  Thats almost half of the pickups that are pretty much off the table.  

          •  Yes - (0+ / 0-)

            Some are pretty safe - and other are definitely not.
            Foley's seat in FL.
            DeLay's seat in TX.
            Ciro's seat in South Tex.
            I agree - about half.
            Also - about half the GOP seats under 10% really are not in play.
            The two Nebraska seats, WY-AL, ID-01, IN-03.

            So it looks like 35 seats in total in play - split equally.
            Maybe the thirty more possibilities we mentioned - again split equally.

            Hardly a landslide in the makings.

          •  You can add CT-05 to the safe category (0+ / 0-)

            and CT-04 to the endangered repub seat.  Connecticut will be all blue in 09 and it will likely stay that way in the foreseeable future as there is no viable repub anywhere.

            Also it does not appear as repubs will have any real shot at any of the other New England seats and will very likely lose a few more in NY, NJ and PA.  Just in this part of the country the repubs will likely lose about half a dozen seats easily.

            20 is not out of the realm of possibility, especially when you consider there are almost 20 repub incumbents retiring and we haven't even gotten to the 08 campaign season yet.

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