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View Diary: Could the 2008 Election be Like the 1932 Election? (Part 3) (321 comments)

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  •  But If It's a Huge Trend - (0+ / 0-)

    I'm curious to see the possibilities.
    How many seats constitutes a landslide in 1932 terms?  
    Ballpark, not specific.

    If 1932 involved 100 seats, 50 seats might be an acceptable definition.  I doubt many people would find 20 seats comparable to 1932.  Are there 50 seats out there that are possible/likely to switch to the Dems?

    The reality is that these seats have incumbents sitting in them - D and R.  Incumbents have a 95% reelection rate.  There are long-term voting patterns in districts.  So, I'd like to see 50 GOP seats that have a chance of switching parties.

    PS - And that does not include holding on to seats the Dems won in 2006 that are in tough districts.  The greatest likelihood for a seat switching is in the first reelection cycle.

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