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View Diary: Electing a president: The native son effect (16 comments)

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  •  some questions (1+ / 0-)
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    Did you model the cook PVI for each election -- meaning two observations per CD?  If so, did you think about using fixed effects?  If you get more years of data then I would think you would want to explore fixed effects at the CD level, but then you have the problem that CDs can change definitions.  Perhaps fixed effects at the state level?  The quandary deepens when you think about how fixed effects would change the interpretation of the coefficients. Hmmm...

    •  some answers (1+ / 0-)
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      NRG Guy

      I modeled PVI for the 2000 and 2004 elections, combined.  I only have the demographic info. based on the 2000 census (I am looking for earlier stuff).

      If I did get data back to, say, 1945, then a mixed effect model would be the way to go, probably at the state level (setting AK and HI to missing for first few elections).

      Then there's the problem that the demographics are only collected decenially (AFAIK) and that some of the definitions of the demographics change.... I think the ethnic group definitions changed for the 2000 census, esp. how 'multiple race' people were classified.

      Lots of interesting stuff

      •  CD demographics back to 1943 (1+ / 0-)
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        are available at CD data, as mentioned by someone else at stats geek of daily kos.  they provide a csv file format for each congress from 1943/44 to 1997/98.  It includes median income, race=black (but no other racial info), rural/urban info, veterans, employment related info, and a few other items.  

        It would be easy to download all of the files and concatenate them (at least, it would be easy for me to write a Stata script that would do that).  If this dataset meets your needs and you'd like some help, I can create a Stata file and email it to you (or convert it to a preferred format using Stata/transfer).

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