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View Diary: Iowa: who the hell knows? (401 comments)

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  •  6-10%? (4+ / 0-)

    Iowa isn't an accurate reflection of the will of Iowa's voters. It's a reflection of a tiny percentage (6-10%) of Iowa voters who turn out

    Seems like the word "caucus" is missing right after the first "Iowa" in the original.

    In 04, number of Iowa Dem caucus goer: 124,331. link

    In Iowa, only registered Democrats get to caucus.  Some independents and a few Republicans play Democrats for one night to join the Dem caucuses.
    Number of active registered Dems is 602,433 (Aug 2005). link

    So ignoring the non-Dems that went to caucus, % Dems that caucus in 04: 20.6

    Turnout for gubernatorial race, primary of 06: 148,751 link or 24.7%

    A lower turnout for caucus is expected because there is no absentee ballot and older people who are feeble or don't want to drive at night don't go to caucus.

    Where there is probability, there is hope. Go Johnny Go Go Go!

    by Andy86 on Fri Dec 28, 2007 at 04:58:16 PM PST

    •  You sure? (0+ / 0-)

      Sorry to question when i really have no idea, but Kos isnt the first one to call 6-10%. Maybe they erroneously included ALL voters? Anyway, maybe someone can explain where they get the numbers from, or maybe i should just search my comments and hopefully find the diary i was talking about that used similiar numbers as Kos does.

      Thanks for staying sharp and questioning.

      I think saying anything different is a Republican Talking Point from Fox News.

      by Unseen majority on Fri Dec 28, 2007 at 07:03:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You got it. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Involuntary Exile

        Maybe they erroneously included ALL voters?

        First the Dem caucus is a poll open to Dems only and not to all registered voters, and 6% is based on all voters.  The use of all voters as the basis is really stretching it. Does anyone serious think a Dem would have much interest in a Rep caucus and vice versa?  I believe in calculating the turnout based on the number of registered Dem voters and that number is 20.6% for 04.

        Second, given a 20.6% for caucus turnout in Jan 04, and compare that to a 24.7% turnout for the primary in June 06.  Understanding some voters were not able or willing to go to caucus, I argue that the Iowa caucus is a fairly accurate reflection of the will of Iowa Dem voters.

        Where there is probability, there is hope. Go Johnny Go Go Go!

        by Andy86 on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 03:17:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't have the numbers on me ... (0+ / 0-)

      but I seem to remember reading that the number of registered Dems has shot up significantly since 2005, up to around 700-750K.

      Hi! I'm caucusing for [REDACTED].
      "Do not offend the Chair Leg of Truth! It is wise and terrible."

      by section29 on Fri Dec 28, 2007 at 07:34:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  To answer your question (0+ / 0-)

        From here

        "As of Aug. 1 [2006], there were 606,168 active registered Democrats in Iowa and 590,165 Republicans. There were 724,925 no-party registrants, also known as independents.

        That's a change from August of 2005, when there were 609,410 Republicans, 602,433 Democrats and 757,308 independents. So, in one year, Democrats gained registrations while the numbers of Republicans and no-party voters declined."

        Point of reference: There was a gubernatorial primary in June 06.

        Where there is probability, there is hope. Go Johnny Go Go Go!

        by Andy86 on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 05:39:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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