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View Diary: Stats on Iowa spending, media, and electability: a caucus postscript (137 comments)

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  •  Edwards has been camped in Iowa since March'01 (0+ / 0-)

    Edwards' Iowa presence sparks speculation about 2004

    Published: Sunday, March 4, 2001 9:54 p.m. EST

    DES MOINES, Iowa -- President George W. Bush hasn't been in office for much more than a month. But in Iowa -- home to the nation's first presidential caucuses -- it's never too early to start thinking about the next election.

    That helps explain what U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was doing in downtown Des Moines on Saturday night.

    He's made a total of 75 visits (6 in 2001-2002, 23 in 2003, and 46 since Nov'04) to IA and spent 177 days (24+51+102) there, compared to Obama's 43 visits and 80 days.
    Links:
    2004 cycle
    2008 cycle

    As for money, Edwards must have spent a few million in the 2004 cycle as well. We should add that to get a better picture.

    •  Groan. (7+ / 0-)

      You're saying that the 2004 numbers, with different opponents and a different dynamics, should simply be added upon the 2008 numbers.

      Why?

      Please paint for me the logical story that says a TV ad he ran in 2004 should carry the same weight or impact on the 2008 race as an ad he ran, say, last week.  Because unless you can do that, we can only talk about those things in residual terms.  Perhaps you'd like to assign a weight of 0.5 or something to them, to show they carry half the weight as an ad from this election cycle.  But unless you can justify the thought experiment behind that assumption, you're comparing apples to oranges.

      •  it's a mixture of everything. (0+ / 0-)

        For example, 527's (with strange sources of money) ran some ads in the last minute for Edwards. That could be argued to have had a stronger impact than Obama's ads say 6 months ago.

        What weight would we assign to various ads over the last 5 year period or over the last 1 year period? There are no formulas to determine all that.

        Edwards started as the front-runner with 30+% level of support, and Obama began in the 15-20% range in IA. Obama overcame intense attacks (and outrageous smearing by the Clinton camp: Kerrey/Sheehan, and fear-mongering by Bill Clinton) in the last few weeks and won the caucus. That's a stellar victory for him (I was pleasantly surprised by the margin of victory). That's the truth.

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