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View Diary: Obama opens up a double digit lead in New Hampshire (26 comments)

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  •  MoE (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    myrealname

    The margin of error in this poll is large--5%. Only 341 Democrats were surveyed. These kind of tracking polls are auto-news generators for CNN, where statistical fluctuations generate stories. Yesterday it was "Clinton/Obama Tied!" Today it's "Obama Ahead!"

    •  I think Obama is surging from independents - (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pHunbalanced

      it was statistically tied before Iowa, and with Edwards and Obama teaming up on Clinton, I don't think she stands a chance.  

    •  It's not just this poll (6+ / 0-)

      Here is the net swing to Obama among all of the pollsters that have released post-Iowa data, and also released data in the second half of December.  The trendline is as compared to the pollster's last purely pre-Iowa poll.

      Zogby: +16 since 1/3
      ARG: +15 since 1/3
      Rasmussen: +15 since 12/18
      CNN/UNH: Obama +14 since 12/30
      USA Today/Gallup: +13 since 12/19
      Suffolk +13 since 1/3
      Franklin Pierce +7 since 12/31

      Barack Obama. Because we can do better.

      by poblano on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:00:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  While MOE is a factor (0+ / 0-)

      We've all seen the bandwagon effect in primaries. I mean no disrespect to Obama by this, but people do like to back a winner and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is Iowa paying dividends.

      Given how tough it is to choose among multiple candidates who are all generally viewed well by Democratic primary voters--Clinton moreso off this site than on it, I acknowledge--should it be any surprise that a victory would help people latch on to the likeable candidate who is doing best?

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