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View Diary: Huckabee Delivers Sermon on "God's Army" in NH (35 comments)

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  •  Army of Deserters (2+ / 0-)
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    The Termite, Pris from LA

    As I posted in a followup analysis of Iowa's primary last week in "Evangelists Don't Heart Huckabee", the media story that evangelists are overwhelmingly choosing Huckabee is a lie:

    The actual numbers show that evangelicals dislike Huckabee more than they like him. Even though 60% of Iowa caucusers were evangelicals (horrifying), only 45% of them voted for Huckabee. 355,000 people turned out, so that's 213,000 evangelicals. Since only 115,000 people voted for Republicans, that leaves at least 46% of evangelicals who didn't even vote Republican (even if every Republican voter were an evangelical). More evangelicals voted Democrat than voted Huckabee.

    If we had a breakdown of Republicans by non/evangelical, we'd probably see that evangelicals are the only ones left voting Republican. So what if they're all voting Huckabee? He's a preacher who hasn't been exposed as a religious hypocrite yet, so of course those theocrats will vote for him (when the majority of them aren't voting for Democrats).

    Iowa is not representative of the country, which is why framing the entire election in its 12% "record turnout" caucus is a sham. But at 60% evangelical, it's fairly representative of evangelicals. Since that's who this media story is talking about, we can see that the media has gotten the story exactly wrong.

    Probably because the real story, that no one is voting for Republicans except maybe a bare majority of evangelicals, is so horrifying to the faith of the Republican corporate media.

    Of course, that kind of clear statistical reality has never fazed either politicians or preachers insisting god's on their side, that the people are rising up to their messianic arrival, that they are destiny. But the faithy evangelicals themselves seem to know better this time. Better than the facty NYT.

    Since I doubt NH has anywhere the proportion of evangelicals as Iowa, Huckabee will have to save himself this time.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 10:24:38 AM PST

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