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View Diary: The delegate count (249 comments)

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    zeke L

    The best explanation of this system that I have found is here: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

    First off, no regular delegates have been awarded at all and won't be until the district conventions in April and the state convention in June.  The 16-14-15 breakdown is estimated using the breakdown of votes in each of the 5 congressional districts.  Each district will award delegates based on the proportional vote within the district, and 16 delegates will be divided proportionally based on the statewide vote.  

    However, there is a big caveat.  Because the race will most likely be over by April and definitely by June, these proportions will be meaningless! As candidates drop out their delegates will no longer bound.  

    Iowa in 2004 demonstrates this.  The delegate estimate between Kerry, Edwards, and Dean was 21-17-7, but the final delegates awarded were 39-4-2.  All of the 16 at-large delegates awarded at the state convention went to Kerry since he was the only one left by then.

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