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View Diary: First Thoughts on the Town-by-Town Results From New Hampshire (422 comments)

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  •  those polls you refer to are (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Spit

    were taken before NH, weren't they? During the 3 day Obama craze and bounce.
    That is over now. Clinton will win SC by at least 10 points and then the 20+ victories will follow in all other states.
    If Edwards drops out it will be closer, but the Hillary's victory will never be in doubt.

    Clinton/Bush changing the White House since 1981! Give the DLC one more shot!

    by Zagatzz on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:21:10 PM PST

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    •  Not all bounces work the same (2+ / 0-)
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      Zagatzz, wishingwell

      you don't get a huge 10 point bounce after every state. She might get some bounce out of this, she's certainly shown that she's still viable, but it's not likely to be 10 points in SC just off a NH win and an Iowa loss. Obama also showed himself to be viable by winning Iowa, but his momentum from that win didn't wind up being enough in itself to push him over the top.

      Particularly since we've now got a little more time before the next really meaningful primaries, which gives more time for any 'bounce' to filter out or be actually captured and solidified. Bounces can be notoriously fickle unless campaigns do something to really solidify that temporary bump.

      Now, I'm not saying Clinton won't translate this into a solid win with her "comeback kid" narrative -- I make zero predictions right now -- but she's still going to have to work for it some, and both Obama and Clinton have openings on which they can try to make up ground on each other. The trick for Obama now is to make sure he can run a slightly different campaign, because after Iowa he seemed to rely heavily on his momentum -- he's going to have to try a different gameplan now, but his momentum carried him to more or less even with Clinton, in a snapshot sense.

      •  we'll have to agree to disagree then :) nt (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Spit

        Clinton/Bush changing the White House since 1981! Give the DLC one more shot!

        by Zagatzz on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:38:56 PM PST

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      •  so true (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Spit

        and Obama can now position himself differently as a co-frontrunner and not the frontrunner. He could even position himself as an underdog now if what Zag is saying, others are thinking. In fact, Zag's thinking may help Obama if enough people start saying that. As people do like to vote for an underdog.

        Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. -Robert F. Kennedy

        by wishingwell on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:55:13 PM PST

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