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View Diary: Inaccurate NH Polls, The Madness is in the Method (21 comments)

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  •  Thanks for your expertise (2+ / 0-)
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    dbratl, AdamR

    I've been worried that these polls wind up influencing the eventual outcome. For example, if people think Obama is way ahead, they may not vote (or not make an extra special effort to vote) or they may vote in the Republican primary where they think they'll make more of a difference. If everything is unknown and up for grabs, they may vote their first choice.

    •  Well, I think you are correct in saying they do (1+ / 0-)
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      AdamR

      . . . influence the way people vote, especially among independents given the choice to vote in two races.  

      Suppose the Giants/Cowboys game and the Seahawks/Packers game were on at the same time.  If you were a both a fan of the Giants and the Seahawks (like my sister) you'd probably be more likely to watch the Seahawks if you thought the Giants were going to blow Dallas out even if you liked the Giants more than the Seahawks.

      That's a convoluted ways of saying that if you're an independent and you liked both Obama and McCain, you were probably more likely to vote for McCain seeing as how from the polls Obama was already going to win.

      Some advice: Travel lightly.

      by dbratl on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:24:10 PM PST

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    •  affecting behavior (1+ / 0-)
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      dbratl

      These polls probably do affect people's voting behavior, but those people are just fooling themselves with their not-so-clever voting strategies.

      In these early proportional primaries, it doesn't matter who wins or by how much...a vote is a vote, and they all get counted at the end of the primary season.

      "Avoid extremes; forbear resenting injuries so much as you think they deserve." -Benjamin Franklin

      by AdamR on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:26:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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