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View Diary: What's an Obama State? With February predictions. (242 comments)

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  •  Kerry wasn't viable in 20% of precincts in 2004 (8+ / 0-)

    Lots of small rural precincts.

    Clinton gave Iowa her best shot, and has given up on the caucus states since then (NV she had the Dem party backing her).

    She should still win Maine, though, through sheer demographics.

    "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

    by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:10:15 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  I guess I should have clarified that. (8+ / 0-)

      There's an interesting difference between the Kerry/HRC phenomenon, if I'm remembering correctly.

      Kerry lost a lot of the rural precincts as a "Massachusetts Lib'rul."  Hillary wasn't viable in some of the urban precincts around here.

      In fact, in the next town over she wasn't viable in 2 of 3 precincts at all.

      It wasn't necessarily the rural vote that did it for her in Iowa...if anything, I'd expect them to go for JRE, but they were overall pretty split.

      A lot of the rural precincts went JRE/Obama/HRC...it was really weird.

      I've never seen anything quite like it here.

      Oh well...Obama won.  YAY! :-)

      It's not the idiocy...it's the idiots you DON'T see...

      by DemocraticOz on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:13:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Really? I was in WDM and she was pretty strong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kyril

        there.

        Not nearly as strong as Obama, of course.

        "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

        by Geekesque on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:16:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm in Eastern Iowa. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bara, peraspera, Empower Ink, kyril

          She wasn't viable in several Cedar Rapids precincts, IIRC.  I was talking to a couple of the BHO precinct captains at the afterparty, and they were pretty psyched she wasn't viable where they were.

          I was in Lisbon, and our delegates split 4:4:2 for BHO/JRE/HRC.

          I know that in one precinct in Mt. Vernon, the Richardson people gave her 4 people to get a delegate and the rest went to Obama, and in the Northern Mt. Vernon precinct, she didn't get any delegates at all.

          She also didn't get any delegates in one of the other small towns around here...I can't remember which one.

          I gotta tell you, I really didn't expect to do well in Iowa, no matter what the polls said here.

          I really expected a HRC/JRE/BHO result, and what we got shocked the hell out of me.

          It's not the idiocy...it's the idiots you DON'T see...

          by DemocraticOz on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:19:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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