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View Diary: What's an Obama State? With February predictions. (242 comments)

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  •  overfitting still might be a problem (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Victor, Abou Ben Adhem, kyril, zackamac

    although I agree that cross-validation isn't likely to be the answer.

    Obviously, waiting until some results from Feb come in is a great test.

    Alternatively, it is possible that some of the variables could be collapsed: for example, the ratio of Southern Baptists to African-Americans might be more informative than including both in the model. That might capture the dynamic that poblano seems to be noticing.

    Another way to do this would be to try to get the information county by county (or CD by CD). That would give the model MANY more data points, allowing for a much more robust fit.

    Maybe a collective project -- it would be a lot of work to get this sort of info for each CD for one person, but if everybody chipped in a few CDs, it would be easy.

    •  bravo! (0+ / 0-)

      I'm certainly no newbie to DK, but over the years, I've found 90% of the diaries and comments to of turd grade.  Its the diamonds in the turds that make it worthwhile.

      This diary and comment threads like yours are the rare exception.

      Liberals drive me crazy. Unfortunately, conservatives are even worse.

      by goblue72 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:07:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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