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View Diary: Clinton's Hold on Superdelegates May Depend on Wins in TX and OH (346 comments)

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    •  exactly (17+ / 0-)

      Tomorrow looks good, and Clinton seems to be bypassing Hawaii/Wisconsin on the 19th in search of some buckeye and lone stars. Problem with this "Giuliani strategy" is that it assumes Obama gets no momentum out of 10 consecutive wins.

      Gary Hart won Ohio in 1984, and he had very little blue-collar support. I'm hearing Ohio may not be as natural for Clinton as we thought (certainly after a stunningly big loss in Maine, it can no longer be said that she has the white working class locked up).

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:00:53 PM PST

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      •  It's an open primary in OH, (12+ / 0-)

        and she shouldn't count on any such state. Not to say that she won't win, but a big win is going to be elusive.  

        •  open primary's a problem given GOP&O's race card (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Rick Winrod

          with Obama and friends nicely pretended outrage at innocent remarks has "solidified the base" so as to make Hillary's chances slim.

          The GOP push to knock Hillary out of the race (as Pat Buccanan has related, in 1972 Nixon accomplished this with Muskie whom he feared because he wanted to run against Mondale) is once again working in our open primaries.  I suspect the Democratic Party will indeed once again allow the GOP to chose the flag bearer via these "open" primaries and loose caucus rules re being a Democrat.

          Indeed in the current run of Obama wins it comes down to either independents, red state liberals that can't deliver their state in the general, and Obama's great success from his playing the race card to "solidify" his base (I refuse to accept the idea that black racism is reason for 90% Obama vote - and I note that any person gets a kick from their ethnic group - albeit not a 90% to 10% edge as in this case in Delaware).

          Unfortunately such block voting makes some suggest Obama only wins in heavily black areas and college towns and with better off folks that are liberals, or in caucuses with a tiny percentage of the vote in the general to which only those with flexible schedules can go to, usually in red states that those same voters can't deliver in the general.

          The party of the working man is going to nominate the person that can not carry the  "working man" - and some home folks like Kos think this will mean victory in November because the Hope and Vision but little about policy speeches will sell as long as the crowd chants "yes we can"

      •  Ohio seems to be have some sunny spots for Obama (4+ / 0-)
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        JekyllnHyde, ABB, LynChi, Rick Winrod

        for one, the African-American population is comparable to Missouri. I would imagine that the college student population is also winnable.

        Although it would take some good percentages in Northeast Ohio to help cushion things a bit. Someone like Tim Ryan would be a helpful endorser.

        Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Athens go Obama. Probably some more major areas go Obama easily.

        "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

        by RBH on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:08:58 PM PST

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        •  Could be my district too (1+ / 0-)
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          Oh-121, the blackest district in the state. Our congresswoman not only has endorsed Hillary but is Hillary's national co-chair. I'm not sure it will matter the way the tide is flowing. Two of our county commissioners including our congresswoman's long-time friend Peter Lawson Jones have come out for Obama. Tim Hagan (one of the commissioners) is supposedly state co-chair of Obama's campaign. Popular Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman who was just re-elected overwhelmingly (ok, his opponent was a wingnut of colossal magnitude but still...) endorsed Obama and is getting more local pols there on board. The vice-mayor of CInci just endorsed Obama. Several East-Side Cleveland (my district) council people have endorsed Obama. There's a relatively substantiated rumour that our attorney general will endorse Obama. He comes from Ryan territory so who knows? Maybe Ryan will follow.

          We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14:

          by anastasia p on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:51:07 PM PST

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          •  John Lewis endorsed Hillary (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            and his district voted for Obama by a huge margin.

            I'm skeptical that Stephanie Tubbs Jones will really do much to hold down Obama's vote total.

            "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

            by RBH on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:59:11 PM PST

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      •  Clinton "skipping" WI is tell tale... (21+ / 0-)

        I live in s suburb of Milwaukee, and you don't get more working class than Milwaukee.  To say that the state is "set-up" for Obama is pure spin, what it shows is a lack of resources on Clintons part, and some pretty poor planning by some soon to be fired hacks. Obama will be in Madison Tuesday night and Hillary is going to Texas...that says a lot.  I love Austin and all, especially Waterloo Records, but there is an election going on and I don't think 6th st. is the place she should be.  

        What the hell's going on out here--Vince Lombardi -6.75/-5.85

        by Patrick B on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:09:06 PM PST

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        •  that will send a signal to Fiengold (0+ / 0-)


          Keep you eye on the ball PLEDGED DELEGATES Obama wins those he is the nominee.

          by nevadadem on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:12:18 PM PST

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        •  Where is this reported? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          i prefer soccer

          I haven't heard anything about Hillary skipping Wisconsin.

          •  "Skipping" in political sese (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Geotpf, seabrook, fgilbert2

            already lowering expectations, believe NY Times article had mentioned some things too that give this sense. I'm not saying this as knock against her, although I support Obama, I just find it amazing that they think WI is Obama territory. But if you give away territory in this race those with resources and more agile campaign pick it up. I'll be very interested to see how Badger state goes.

            What the hell's going on out here--Vince Lombardi -6.75/-5.85

            by Patrick B on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:18:05 PM PST

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            •  In other words (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Less resources mean inspiring underdog victory, or expected defeat due to "excessive Obama spending".

              "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

              by RBH on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:22:11 PM PST

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            •  She has 8 days (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              mightymouse, lump1

              From Iowa to New Hampshire she had only 4 days.  I think she'll draw a battle line here despite whatever grumblings are coming from her campaign and/or the mainstream media.

              •  In one Looong day... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                seabrook, lump1

                Rally in Racine, Milwaukee Madison, Green Bay, La Crosse, Eau could be brutal, but then again , inspirng...+ hit local media markets at each stop and reach most of the state.  WI loves politics and she could make some headway...I don't know her plans, but as some people here have said, a win here would really bring her some Big Mo.  Again, this will be very interesting race in WI, will tell a lot about where race is heading.

                What the hell's going on out here--Vince Lombardi -6.75/-5.85

                by Patrick B on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:28:32 PM PST

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              •  She'd be stupid not to (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Geotpf, MadEye, Patrick B, forestgreen

                Hillary is not stupid. She has laid the groundwork for this brilliantly: The press already bought her story of "no wins till March" and that's what's now the expected future.

                Did anyone even look whether Obama is leading in WI? Not in any public poll...

                If we wake up in 9 days and the papers are full of "Shocking win for Hillary" and "Hillary back on her game" that will be giant coup for the Clinton campaign. And that publicity will cost them nothing.

                •  Expectations game (5+ / 0-)

                  The expectations game becomes less and less important as this goes on.  At a certain point she has to win delegates.  Even if she does win Wisconsin, it will likely be by a narrow margin, e.g. like the 2% margin in New Hampshire.

                  That's not to say that the day after headlines won't give her a boost.  They will.  But not like NH did.  And bounces generally dissipate with time, and there is a long 2 weeks in btwn Wisconsin and OH & TX.

                •  Does any other country ... (0+ / 0-)

                  Does any other country in the world spend so much time waste so many media cycles worrying about the "expectations game"?

                  I doubt it. When you think about it, it's flat out absurd.

        •  I agree with you (7+ / 0-)

          It seems to me that a win in Wisconsin would reverse this whole narrative for Hillary. I know her ad buy there kicks in tomorrow, and I had the impression she really wanted to fight that one out.

          But I'm not there and you are, and what you say is interesting. It would be very dumb of her to not fight tooth and nail in Wisconsin. I'd go as far as saying that the best way for her to win Texas and Ohio is to win Wisconsin. It would mean weeks of much better press, much better fundraising and much better moralle for everyone who's on her side.

        •  I Think It's a Resources Decision (9+ / 0-)

          I think if she really put a lot of resources in there she could make for a hell of a fight.  But I don't think she has the resources to do that and still have enough to do meaningful buys in OH and TX.

          The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

          by Dana Houle on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:14:26 PM PST

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          •  She needs a NH effect (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Geotpf, lump1

            After getting trounced in IA and the media getting ready for the Obama coronation, she went to NH and squeezed out some empathy from her main demographic groups.

            Seems like Wisconsin would be ripe for the same type of effect.  Like NH, it's a Northern state, without huge african-american numbers, and with a sizable blue collar population.

            I do not understand why she would give up on Wisconsin.

            •  That's exactly how I see it (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              The great thing for Hillary is that nobody would see it coming, just like NH. Even a very narrow win and a delegate split would completely shift the narrative of the campaign.

              The primary fights are now at a fevered pitch, but the intensity will die down. During this downtime, the media will want a story, and if in this downtime Obama is clearly on top, the stories will revolve around the question "How Doomed is Hillary?"

              That's not the sort of press she wants going in to must-win races.

            •  I Think NH Was Won by Outside Groups... (0+ / 0-)

              ...that were working on her behalf to dramatically increase the women's vote.  

              The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

              by Dana Houle on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:31:39 PM PST

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      •  I'm SEEING Ohio may not be (13+ / 0-)
        as natural for Clinton as some may have thought, and I certainly would not go out on a limb predicting a "comfortable" win here for anyone. I had an interesting experience tonight I was about to diary about. Tonight was our monthly 11th district  caucus meeting and the congresswoman herself was there. The congresswoman is Hillary's national co-chair. She's a longtime friend of Hillary's and the place was completely decked out; it looked like Hillary headquarters. It was candidates' night and before the parade of judges began, the congresswoman spoke for Hillary, actually mostly talking about how the most important thing was that we not fight over our candidates and that we beat the Republican in November. I looked around the packed room and just sensed something ....weird. As usual, the crowd was heavily African American and skewed elderly. They love the congresswoman but something felt al little off. The applause was coming only in sections. And then when the congresswoman started talking about how she was so produ to be a superdelegate, an older black man stood up and asked, "If this district were to vote for Obama, would you change your vote?" "Absolutely not!" she said (which I expect because of her long-term ties to Hillary). There was a murmur of disapproval in the room.

        I'll leave the story about how the caucus director asked if there was anyone there to speak for the Obama campaign, claiming he invited them, and the second time he asked, I leapt up and went up front and spoke for Obama, for my own diary. I still can't believe I did that. But after I spoke, a number of folks came up to me and expressed their support. My sense is that the black vote is now flooding to Obama because they now believe he can win. These are people who actually do like Hillary, loved Bill, but are unbelievably excited that Obama looks viable. And black vote for Obama means district 11 for Obama.

        Sure, the Clinton ampaign is here in full force. But so is the Obama campaign, which flooded Ohio the day after Super Tuesday. Paul Tewes, who headed the Iowa effort, is heading the campaign here. More and more people are emerging to endorse Obama every day, starting to counteract the heavy hitters (the congresswoman, our governor and lieutenant governor) who have come out for Hillary. Everywhere I go people ask me where they can get a button like mine. I don't think this state is going to be a slam dunk for anyone. Well, it will be for whichever Democrat gets the nominee because McCain is going to get slammed here, like, bulldozed.

        We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14:

        by anastasia p on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:46:22 PM PST

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    •  The Giuliani strategy redux (6+ / 0-)

      Rudy! skipped four races (after he'd been run out of two of them by collapsing poll numbers) and was a nonentity by the time his "firewall" state occurred.

      Four weeks ago Obama's pre-Superduper Tuesday surge had barely begun.  Can any of us remember that far back?  Four weeks from now come OH and TX, which Hillary is far from assured of winning.  Can a month of big Obama wins fail to have a decisive effect on these two states?  

      Hillary's $10 million Internet haul was probably at least met by Obama's:  that's just over his average haul for a week in January.  As Clinton's losses continue in February, how will she continue that pace of excitement in fundraising?  How will she combat the growing "loser" label which is beginning to hover around her campaign?  How can she stop Obama's momentum?

      Hillary's campaign looks all but dead, and she doesn't even know it yet.

      •  No, It's Not (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MadEye, politicaljunkie, Fight or Die

        It's more like a McCain strategy.  Guiliani just kept moving the date back to start his campaign.  Clinton won NH, got a draw in NV and she won some big states on Super Tuesday, including a solid win in California.  She's not competing in every state because she doesn't have the resources.  But she can win states.  To think that Guiliani could actually win states was always a delusion in my mind, because he's a shitty candidate out of step with his national party.  Clinton is a great candidate in step with her party.  She's just facing another great candidate, one who is arguably even better than her, and who is running a better campaign.  

        The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

        by Dana Houle on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:17:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  How can she win? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          She's going to lose ground in pledged delegates throughout February, so she'll not only have to win OH and TX, but to win them decisively in order to come close to catching up.  This doesn't even account for the effects of momentum Obama will carry through February.

          I don't see how the Clintons can win the nomination without a lead in pledged delegates:  the fix from superdelegates is a glaring trap even Democrats are probably too smart to fall into.  So she'll need strong wins in OH, TX and PA to get there.  That's an awfully thin tightrope for her to have to walk.

      •  Different- Rudy Was Out of the News (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        what sunk Rudy was that while the news centered on the competitors in the current races, Rudy wasn't in it so no news. however, Clinton's problem will be a snowballing effect for O if he wins 10 states in a row with landslides.

        •  Obama Wins Clinton loses over and over again (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Geotpf, jenontheshore

          is not going to do her any good. Having said that, after NH, I expect a surprise revival with each and every contest, including tomorrow. Obama actually getting the nomination just seems too good to be true...I've had my hopes up before and was crushed, I'm not ready to experience that again. I'm rooting for him, but I'm keeping my expectations down.

    •  Or we need to get up off our a** (4+ / 0-)

      And do some phonebanking instead of talking about it!

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