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  •  Re: Chris is not saying (4.00)
    "There is a HUGE difference between assessing the polling data objectively and reacting to it appropriately..."

    What is the appropriate reaction to the polls of the past week?  

    To me, the data is unquestionably bad news.  It shows Kerry bleeding in some important ways from an original position of strength.  And with Bush heading into his big opportunity of the next two weeks, there's no indication how deep Kerry's bleeding will get.

    "and the massive volume of whining, screaming, crying, bitching and moaning going on"

    I'm not in favor of whining, screaming, crying, bitching, or moaning.

    But neither am in favor of cooking the books.  Nothing good ever comes from cooking the books in-house.

    "It is depressing, enervating, annoying, and self-defeating."

    If anything, bad news should give us incentive to redouble our efforts in the face of a dogfight.  Why do we think people will only want to work hard if we're cruising to victory?

    "The point is that BOTH the positive trending and the negative trending polls contain useful information, containg both positive and negative internals, and should be giving us clues as to direction, location, emphasis, theme, and meme."

    Exactly.  That's the heart of the matter.  If we're determined to ignore George Bush's successes and advances, if we're determined to view polls with rose-colored glasses, we won't get much useful information and clues from the polls.

    "For now, the time is nigh, the lines are drawn, and the battle is nearly fully engaged.  Gird, guard, and get busy!"

    Get busy indeed.  This is a real fight, and it's important we win, no matter whether we're up or down at the moment.

    •  Ok, then (4.00)
      we agree on the fundamentals.

      I disagree, to a point, about the entirity of the polling information being negative.

      Electoral Vote

      Federal Review

      Election Projection

      all show Kerry with a strong lead in the important category - electoral votes.

      In fact, given the current data, it is pretty clear that the race, as Charlie Cook said, is Kerry's to lose.

      Kerry is running a great campaign.

      The horse-race polls are all over ths shop, from the recent goodness found in Zogby (questionable and untested methodology to be sure) and in the Economist/YouGov the recent not-so-goodness-ranging to badness of the Pew, LATimes, and Gallup polls.

      The electoral college, state-by-state polls, the ones breaking down the race into the ones that matter show that Kerry is doing extremely well in many many ways.

      Targeting based on that kind of information - for example, targetting North Carolina to draw GOP resources, and then end-arounding into Ark, Ten, Missouri, or Nevada...

      Or targeting Ohio and doing the same.

      Competing in Virginia...

      The latest round of national polls is a very very mixed bag.

      The latest round of State-by-State is more positive, but still not enough.

      The point Chris is trying to make is that the doom-and-gloomers are glomming onto individual data points, blowing the situation all out of rational proportion, and being generally non-constructive in the extreme.

      The only way to ensure a free press is to own one

      by RedDan on Thu Aug 26, 2004 at 12:56:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Ok, then (none)
        "In fact, given the current data, it is pretty clear that the race, as Charlie Cook said, is Kerry's to lose."

        As a betting man, I've got my money on Kerry.

        "Kerry is running a great campaign."

        Totally agreed.  I'm a big fan of Team Kerry's entire operation so far.  They're making all the right tactical decisions, including the timing and manner they pushed back on SBVT.  And I think they've made all the right strategic decisions, especially in trying to re-run Israel's Barak/Netanyahu election.


        But as far as polling goes:

        If you're looking at state-by-state maps, you're looking at a snapshot of the election heavily weighted in favor of past snapshots.  You're missing the recent SBVT fallout that is the reason for concern in the first place.

        •  The state-by-state maps... (4.00)
          at least a large number of them, do NOT average over the entire history of the polling in that state - I know that race2004 DOES average over polling history, but many of them go with the most recent poll.

          Going with the most recent poll, going with the average over polling history, going with the weighted average...they all are working out approximately the same - Kerry is in the best position at the moment.

          Now, you are worried about the SwiftSmear effect - I think that is pretty much done with. Game over.

          You are worried about the RNC/Protests/Riots/Convention effect, and I agree that this has the potential to be damaging.

          HOWEVER, look at what is now going on in the News...Najaf is on fire, Sistani is marching through the South, the Kufa Mosque just got bombed, Abu Ghraib just got re-upped to the front page (and Kerry called for Rummie's resignation), And it SEEMS that there is some serious movement on the Plame case....

          I think that events are going to swamp the Mayberry Machiavelli's little charade to a degree that simply cannot be ignored.

          I think that the RNC, in the absence of any other news, has the potential to hurt Kerry...but I think that having the RNC go on with protests at the same time that Abu Ghraib gets re-opened, Najaf explodes, Kufa and Kut explode, and L'affair Plame gets bubbling...well...that's a different story.

          We shall see.

          The only way to ensure a free press is to own one

          by RedDan on Thu Aug 26, 2004 at 01:30:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Re: The state-by-state maps... (none)
            "HOWEVER, look at what is now going on in the News...Najaf is on fire, Sistani is marching through the South, the Kufa Mosque just got bombed..."

            This is the most remarkable part of recent Republican strategy to me.  They've done two major things this month:  the SBVT thing, and restarting the Iraq war.

            Restarting the war is certainly counter-intuitive, but they're doing it for a reason.  They believe it helps them.

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