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  •  The state-by-state maps... (4.00)
    at least a large number of them, do NOT average over the entire history of the polling in that state - I know that race2004 DOES average over polling history, but many of them go with the most recent poll.

    Going with the most recent poll, going with the average over polling history, going with the weighted average...they all are working out approximately the same - Kerry is in the best position at the moment.

    Now, you are worried about the SwiftSmear effect - I think that is pretty much done with. Game over.

    You are worried about the RNC/Protests/Riots/Convention effect, and I agree that this has the potential to be damaging.

    HOWEVER, look at what is now going on in the News...Najaf is on fire, Sistani is marching through the South, the Kufa Mosque just got bombed, Abu Ghraib just got re-upped to the front page (and Kerry called for Rummie's resignation), And it SEEMS that there is some serious movement on the Plame case....

    I think that events are going to swamp the Mayberry Machiavelli's little charade to a degree that simply cannot be ignored.

    I think that the RNC, in the absence of any other news, has the potential to hurt Kerry...but I think that having the RNC go on with protests at the same time that Abu Ghraib gets re-opened, Najaf explodes, Kufa and Kut explode, and L'affair Plame gets bubbling...well...that's a different story.

    We shall see.

    The only way to ensure a free press is to own one

    by RedDan on Thu Aug 26, 2004 at 01:30:01 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Re: The state-by-state maps... (none)
      "HOWEVER, look at what is now going on in the News...Najaf is on fire, Sistani is marching through the South, the Kufa Mosque just got bombed..."

      This is the most remarkable part of recent Republican strategy to me.  They've done two major things this month:  the SBVT thing, and restarting the Iraq war.

      Restarting the war is certainly counter-intuitive, but they're doing it for a reason.  They believe it helps them.

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