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View Diary: Hillary is Leading in OH, TX and RI (241 comments)

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  •  If TX and OH and RI voters... (7+ / 0-)

    ...see their shadows on March 4, we're going to get 6 more weeks of winter.  Is that what you're trying to say?
    If Obama wins Texas and Vermont(and Mississippi and Wyoming a week later), Clinton is mathematically eliminated from any chance of winning enough pledged delegates to make up the gap between them, and also from beating him in the popular vote.  The pressure on her to quit will become enormous.

    If she doesn't score a knockout blow tomorrow night, she'll continue to lose ground in TX and OH, and even RI.

    •  My math concurs with yours (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HRs Kevin

      I am guessing that Texas will be close, either way, as Senator Obama's been gaining ground and it remains to be seen whether a remaining week will be sufficient for him to close the gap on Senator Clinton.

      As to Ohio, my guess is that her lead is insurmountable  there -- but I'll hedge that by noting that her opponent's ground game is well-organized and massive.

      I believe Senator Obama will take Vermont, and Senator Clinton will take Rhode Island.

      So state-by-state, that'd be 2-2 -- however, and more importantly, I think Senator Obama will pick up more delegates and widen his lead.  Senator Clinton's campaign will receive a bit of a lift by breaking the loss streak.

      "The revolution will not be televised, it will be distributed freely over the Internet via P2P filesharing." -- Rich Kulawiec (nod to GSH)

      by RiderOnTheStorm on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 10:56:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No dispute there... (0+ / 0-)

      ...as even Bill Clinton admits his wife needs to win both.

      But if she does, and even if Texas is a squeaker, it is myopic that a pledged delegate lead will mean inevitablity for Obama.  Hillary doesn't need to take a pledged delegate lead, just get close enough.  

      If she wins Texas and Ohio, then wins big in Pennsylvania, she will have recovered enough to throw this into at least a deadlock, if not have momentum on her side.

      If she does this, Obama will be in the difficult position of arguing that with superdelegates, the rules are not the rules and they should all vote lockstep with whomever has the pledged delegate lead - however tiny that lead.  On the other hand, he will say the rules are the rules and the Florida delegation should not be seated.  He will be talking out of both sides of his mouth and even a Houdini could not escape the logic trap he will be in.

      •  A few minor complications... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kdee

        namely, the other 11 states remaining besides OH, TX and PA.  
        Obama will definitely win MS and VT, probably WY, almost certainly win NC(which has a lot of delegates), and then will probably win most of the remaining 7.  

        He would go into the convention with wins in 30 or more states.  

        The other problem for her is that 6 weeks is an eterntity.  The Obama campaign will/would hit every nook and cranny of PA in that time frame.  Her only shot would be going hard negative, and doing that would lose her the general in November, because some portion of the Obama support would be ticked off enough to either stay home, vote Dem but leave the top ballot blank, cast a protest 3rd party vote, or most likely just refuse to donate or canvas for Clinton.

        •  This is all speculation of course... (0+ / 0-)

          ...BUT, Hillary wins could change the dynamics in those remaining races.

          Also, Obama is just now getting the normal scrutiny a front runner gets.  That includes from McCain's campaign as well as of course the media.  So far he has benefitted from the fact that Hillary has been the chew toy of the right wing for decades.  Obama talks about the "ceiling" that Hillary faces, not noting fairly that this was a ceiling of hate created by the same right wing spin machine that did in Dukakis, Gore and Kerry.

          Well, that "ceiling' is about to fall on him too.  He will learn what it is like to be Hillary Clinton, with your every word twisted against you.

          •  Gore and Kerry were also "experience" candidates (0+ / 0-)

            And Hillary Clinton's incompetent campaign is still trying to beat home the ridiculous argument that because she's already had truckloads of controversy that the Republicans can't find anything more or will somehow be unable to talk about everything else which has happened. The race is over, Hillary Clinton is finished, and March 4 will only confirm what anyone with any common sense figured out a long time ago.

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          The other problem for her is that 6 weeks is an eterntity.  The Obama campaign will/would hit every nook and cranny of PA in that time frame.  Her only shot would be going hard negative, and doing that would lose her the general in November, because some portion of the Obama support would be ticked off enough to either stay home, vote Dem but leave the top ballot blank, cast a protest 3rd party vote, or most likely just refuse to donate or canvas for Clinton.

          Don't give the Obama campaign a full month and a half to campaign in PA.  Also, considering the fact she didn't even file all of her delegates in time in PA.  She will have problems there.  The longer this goes on, the worse she does because she's not prepared to go the distance.

          Her numbers always start high and then crumble as time goes one.  With that amount of time, he will either tie or he might take PA outright.  

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