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View Diary: Hillary is Leading in OH, TX and RI (241 comments)

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  •  That will be the Obama spin... (0+ / 0-)

    ..but that will not be what the super dels are seeing.

    They will be seeing that Obama, even with the wave of largely uncritical press and momentum, could not win a string of big important states, it will be a big question mark.  He has already lost most of the big states.

    You are all making the argument that a narrow pledged delegate lead - for any candidate - should settle matters.  I don't think that argument will hold water with the super delegates, as it is clearly not what they were created for.

    Ohio will be key. This is a Democratic must-win state in the general election, as is Pennsylvania.  If Hillary beats him there it takes all the air out of his balloon that only he can beat McCain.

    Wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas put Florida back on the screen.  Obama will be making a lawyerly argument that 1.3 million Floridians - in yet another must win state for Democrats in November - should have their votes thrown out.

    The super dels will be watching all this.  They will see a Hillary reborn, and a reeling Obama.

    I also don't think Obama wants to go to the Convention making that Florida argument.  And even assuming they do another vote in Florida, coming in the wake of Obama losses in Texas, Pa. and Ohio I think she beats him soundly in any sort of Florida contest.

    I blame the Democratic Party for this mess.  But both candidates are left to struggle with the reality they have, and I would not say Obama is a sure thing.

    All eyes rest on Texas. I think Hillary has to have that too, even narrowly.

    •  SuperDelegates will see (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inland, NMLib

      Clinton getting crushed in head-to-head match-ups with McCain, even in states whose primaries she won.

      They will see Obama having held his own against a full court press from both the McCain and Clinton camps, complete with a resurrection of the "Muslim" charge.

      You can wish all you want.

      Clinton is just campaigning for McCain at this point.

      •  The Obama argument will have to pivot... (0+ / 0-)

        ...from the Mark Penn claim those smaller states Obama won "are not significant" to making its own "Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, California, Florida...don't count"..argument.

        I simply do not see how you spin even narrow losses.  Obama expectations among the national press and the super dels are of the mighty Obama of March 2008, not the neophyte of the fall of 2007.

        Obama supporters still want to pitch him as the underdog and spin expectatons that way.  This is no longer how he is view.  He is the favorite, the front runner, with a crushing money advantage, a string of wins and an adoring media.  If he has all this and LOSES, then all bets are off.

        •  You're not making any sense. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          You see, the PRIMARY and the GENERAL are different elections.

          In the PRIMARY, it's Obama vs Clinton.  Obama losing to Clinton in any particular state says zippo about whether Obama would lose to McCain.  The concept that Obama is going to lose CA, or Clinton has a chance in hell of winning TX, based on whether they won the state in the primary is really silly.

          So what SHOULD you be looking at?  Well, the polls, for one thing, that show Obama crushing McCain and HRC losing.  The trends, which show HRC failing.  The money, where HRC and McCain are now tied.  And the fact that HRC is winning the primaries with things that only hurt her in the general, such as, Bill, Mandates, Let's Go Back to the 1990s, and herself.

          If she's so hardworking and wonky, why didn't she read the NIE before voting for the war?

          by Inland on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 12:00:33 PM PST

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      •  Has anyone met one of these superdelegates (0+ / 0-)

        who says "pledged delegates don't matter, I'm looking at OH and TX and nothing else?"

        Me neither.  It's kinda weird.  I guess the thought is a natural outgrowth of Obama being the candidate of children and HRC being the candidates of insiders, and that there's no reason for any reason for anyone to vote for him.

        If she's so hardworking and wonky, why didn't she read the NIE before voting for the war?

        by Inland on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 11:33:58 AM PST

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    •  primary vs general (0+ / 0-)

      Clinton taking 51% in Ohio vs Obama taking 51% in Ohio will not have the least bearing whatsoever on whether it will go blue in November.  Clinton needs to take a big chunk out of Obama's pledged delegate lead, because there isn't any reason why the remaining Super Delegates would break 70%-30% for the candidate with fewer pledged delegates.  The time for symbolism is long since over - Clinton has to ring up meaningful wins.

      If you want to trust somebody with your taxpayer dollars, you'd better elect a Democrat because the Republicans can't manage money. - Howard Dean

      by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 11:31:12 AM PST

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