Skip to main content

View Diary: General Election Projections, Beta Version (223 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  African-Americans & Huckabites in the south? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, baudelairien, zackamac, petral

    I don't think you're adequately accounting for African-Americans and Huckabee voters in the south. Start by looking at these Dem v. Repub primary turnout numbers for the south and some other states. More Dems than Repubs turned out by huge margins in VA and LA, by a merely large margin in SC, and by modest margins in GA and TN. (No numbers yet for NC or MS, which has the highest percentage of African-Americans of any state.) I live in the Atlanta 'burbs, and I was shocked at this development. I suspect the main cause is that African-American turnout, typically lower than white, is higher than white this year, and that this will be so again in November only if Obama is the nominee.

    In other words, if Obama is the nominee, the Dems likely will take VA, SC, LA, MS, and we have a decent shot at GA and TN. (You read it here first!) But if Hillary is the nominee, we'll probably take VA only, and I'm not even sure about that. (Recall what a squeaker Jim Webb won.) So I think the colors on your map need to change -- southern states are stronger for Obama.

    This is consistent with the actual primary results, in which Obama thumped Hillary in all southern states but TN -- and by more than 2-to-1 in SC and GA. The polls have him solidly up in NC, and everyone expects MS to be a massive Obama blowout.

    Now, click that link again and look at Huckabee's big numbers in the south. Expect Repub November turnout to drop (relative to Dem) because Huckabee won't be the nominee. If he's not the VP nominee either, expect it to drop more. If Obama ends up facing a Huckabee-less GOP ticket, the Dems could even take AL, Huckabee's strongest state outside AR.

    Finally, just to make your task really hard, there's this:

    In states where the black population is less than 5%, Obama has a record of 7 wins, 2 losses and 1 undecided (NM).   In states where the black population is 20% or higher, he is undefeated at 4-0. However, in states that are between 5-20% black, his record is a fairly dismal 4-10 (with one of those victories being Illinois).

    The theory here is that Obama does well where the black population is so low that identity politics isn’t an issue.  And, he does well where the black share of Democratic primary voters is so high that he needs few white voters to carry the day.  He has the hardest time in states that are black enough to have some racialized politics, but without enough black voters to completely tip the scales.

    This corresponds to the long held observation that black candidates in general do best in either fairly non-black environments or in heavy black environments but struggle with the in between, where white majority fears that they will be the tool of an aggrieved constituency.  (Some, of course, have broken that mold like Doug Wilder, and Carol Mosely-Braun and Obama himself).

    That was written by a reader of Andrew Sullivan's on Feb. 7. I have not checked on more recent states to see if the pattern holds.

    Great job, Poblano! THANKS!

    -4.25, -4.87 "If the truth were self-evident, there would be no need for eloquence." -- Cicero

    by HeyMikey on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 07:04:21 PM PST

    •  Wait -- maybe I'm wrong. (0+ / 0-)

      Of course, reading the other comments, I find this link: "primary turnout is a terrible indicator for general election results."

      But man, my gut tells me African-Americans are turning out like crazy in the south for Obama; and that is consistent with his massive wins in SC and GA.

      And I don't think I'm wrong about the Huckabee factor, either.

      -4.25, -4.87 "If the truth were self-evident, there would be no need for eloquence." -- Cicero

      by HeyMikey on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 07:23:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe not (0+ / 0-)

        When the Republicans have a presumptive nominee from the get-go, they of course have a lot fewer primary votes. That isn't the case this time.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site