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View Diary: General Election Projections, Beta Version (223 comments)

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  •  Awesome Work--one other stat to consider (4+ / 0-)
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    SLKRR, Woody, decitect, baudelairien

    One statistic I've played with some is sort of a standardized (in a non-stat sense, I don't mean the technical definition) trend measure from '00 to '04. National popular vote shifted about R +2.9%, so I've been kind of grouping states into categories along the lines of (a) states where the dem vote share in a state actually increased despite the national R trend, (b) states where the R vote share increased but still underperformed the national shift and (c) states where the R vote share increased beyond the national shift.

    Now I have no idea whether that means a hill of beans, it's just something I've been messing around with and I have no real clue as to how I'd work it into a regression analysis, but it does seem kind of intuitive. While I don't have the chart in front of me, OH, NV, and CO very much stand out as states falling into category A, with dem vote share actually increasing despite the R trend.

    Great, great analysis man. And I agree. For Obama, I see victory running through OH and the Mountain West. I'd certainly devote resources to FL but with the knowledge at the outset that it's an uphill climb.

    •  Bet that VA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLKRR, Creosote

      My bet is that VA is among the states that went slightly more Democratic between 2000 and 04 despite the national Repub trend.

      And I wonder if some '06 data would be useful in these projections. By the seat of my pants, I'd say that the Democratic sweep in New Hampshire -- taking both House seats and grabbing control of the legislature -- indicates a strong Democratic trend in that state. Colorado showed a similar effect. But the Dixie states, no so much.

      •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
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        Woody, petral

        I have been thinking about whether there's any correlation between the GE presidential result in a given state and that state's most recent statewide elections. It's def something I want to look into more, but I'll bet the evidence is somewhat mixed, with presidential elections being different animals entirely in alot of cases--but I'll also bet that the clearer the trend in the statewide races, the more predictive they become, i.e. in VA, with dems winning the last three competitive state races (Warner, Kaine, and Webb--J. Warner was barely challenged in '02). Of course, there will be some confounding variables in there, i.e. a few dems in VA, the state gets played up as a battleground and hence more resources, better ground-game, etc. It's probably next to impossible to ever totally isolate a "political trend" in a given state. I'd be curious to hear any thoughts Poblano has on this.

        •  There are still vestiges of the Solid South (2+ / 0-)
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          Woody, petral

          I've thought about using things like the composition of state legislatures to determine party affinity, but the thing that trips it up is that a lot of Southern states still tend very Democratic in elections for statewide offices (though some of those "Democrats" might not be recognized as Democrats in other parts of the country).  The Mississippi House of Representatives is still 75-45 Democrat, for instance.  

          Barack Obama. Because we can do better.

          by poblano on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 11:44:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  In the FL panhandle (0+ / 0-)

            there are still many self-identified Democrats who, however, tend to vote Republican for both national and state offices.

          •  common in the south - the "Dixiecrat" legacy - (3+ / 0-)
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            eleming, zackamac, petral

            but the flip side of this is that a lot of these voters will vote for a Dem.  It just has to be the right one.  We haven't had the right one in a long time.  I know the Republidems quite well, because them's my people (evangelical, rural, working class).  I am perpetually an optimist, but I think Obama could bring these voters on board by focusing on the issues that matter to them - and most importantly - by not letting the RNC derail the campaign with "wedge issues."

            We forget that it wasn't really so much W. who "won" the last two elections, as "gay marriage" and "abortion."  This is the reason I think Obama is the stronger candidate than Hillary.  He does a better job of framing, a better job of saying, "this is what's really important" in a way that can be heard by people who don't already agree with him.  I don't think you can measure that kind of qualitative advantage in a poll.  I mean, when we look back, we should be able to assess trends.  But right now, I don't think we can predict/project how much "bump" he'll get as the message is heard by more people...

            It would be nice, though.  :-)

      •  Virginia falls into the middle category (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        It went slightly more Republican in 2004 than in 2000, but below the national average.  

        The national margin shifted 2.98% in favor of Bush, but Virginia only shifted 0.16%.  

        Sim, nós podemos!

        by SLKRR on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:35:40 AM PST

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    • has mapped these (0+ / 0-)

      If you go to their page for the 2004 election, you will see maps that show "Swing" and "Trend."  Swing shows the difference between 2000 and 2004 - did Kerry perform better or worse against Bush in a particular state than Gore did.  Trend shows the difference compared to the national change, in other words was the swing between 2000 and 2004 better or worse than the overall national swing.  

      The region where Kerry clearly outperformed Gore was the huge block of states from the Upper Midwest through the High Plains and Mountain West all the way to the Pacific Northwest.  It should be no surprise that this is the area that is currently breaking strongly in Obama's direction.  (Ohio moved Kerry's direction as well, even though he fell short there due to Blackwell's shenanigans.)

      One caveat - these maps were created with the traditional colors of red for Dems and blue for Repubs, so they can confuse at first glance.

      To see the maps, go here:

      Sim, nós podemos!

      by SLKRR on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:32:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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