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View Diary: General Election Projections, Beta Version (223 comments)

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  •  Running mates have very little effect (0+ / 0-)

    outside their home states, that's been the standard result in every race in recent memory. Sometimes, not even that: Edwards, Ferraro, Bentsen and Kemp were all unable to swing their home states, and Quayle, Lieberman and Cheney came from states that were never really in play in those elections. That leaves Al Gore as the one running mate in recent memory who mave pulled his state into the victor's column, but even that possibility is undercut by the fact that he didn't win the state when he was on the top of the ticket.

    Even the notoriety of Hillary Clinton wouldn't be that much of a game-changer for the Obama campaign, because as you can see the only states where she substantially outperforms Barack as the actual nominee are New York and Arkansas, and even then in neither case does she win a state the Democrats would otherwise lose.

    •  They have a great demographic effect. (0+ / 0-)

      Especially if we end up with McCain/Huckabee. Arkansas will swing back to McCain if you do not have Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama.

      Democrats can easily lose Arkansas. They can also easily have to deal with Florida, Michigan, and could put other states out of reach.

      Despite what the above tripe (yes, it is tripe) states, Obama does not have an easy road ahead of him. Especially since his performance comes from caucuses, open primaries, and strongly "Red states".

      Clinton can bring in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee  and possibly Florida and Michigan due to her "changing the rules".

      Obama can bring, realistically, Hawaii and Illinois.

      They both share the strong blue states like New York, California, and such.

      If you use the above data, just look at one state and know how flawed it truly is -- Arkansas. If you believe a Clinton will ever lose Arkansas, you're delusional. I live here. We would vote for Hillary, Bill, Chelsea...hell, we'd probably vote for a canine Clinton. Arkansans LOVE Clinton.

      "Without alienation, there can be no politics" ~ Arthur Miller

      by jwalker13 on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 06:30:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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