Skip to main content

View Diary: Revisiting Obama's February 6 Projections (153 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  There just aren't enough though (5+ / 0-)

    There are only about 287 supers remaining.  The number has stealthily trickled downward.

    Obama leads by 160 in pledged delegates and will probably be up 175 on March 12 even if he barely loses both Ohio and Texas.  Certainly somewhere in that 160-175 range.

    Right now, Obama and Clinton are tied in ELECTED OFFICEHOLDER (Govs, Senators, House members) superdelegates.  Clinton's 50 superdelegate lead is all DNC members - the Jason Raes and Harold Ickeses of the world.  This is significant because it's much more high-profile and criticism-heavy when an elected official switches than when some faceless DNC person does.

    So on March 12, Obama leads by 170 or so pledged, 120 overall, and 287 left to decide.  That would mean she'd have to win those supers roughly 204-83.  That kind of landslide is deeply implausible, considering all the supers who owed the Clintons their loyalty had pledged long ago.

    Additionally, that would assume the remaining states are fought to a pledged delegate draw, which is very unlikely, as the playing field heavily favors Obama, particularly in North Carolina where he stands to gain a huge number of delegates.

    If that happens, Clinton would need to win the remaining supers something like 217-70, or better than 3-1.  And that is not going to happen, barring Obama dropping out or live boy/dead girl type scandals.

    Math is just killing her.

    Calloused hand by calloused hand.

    by PocketNines on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 03:04:45 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  I hope you're right (0+ / 0-)

      but I never underestimate the ability of injustice to triumph, as it did in December, 2000, and in Russia today.  Hilalry would be well advised to remember the words of 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kim Dae Jung: "He who triumphs by injustice may carry the present day, but history shall always remember him as a shameful loser."

    •  Black Caucus by itself can end it. (0+ / 0-)

      With a practical move to Obama.

      There's no way that these guys can stay with Clinton.

      BTW: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

      Hillary's campaign has a miserable record of using $$$$$$$ to build an effective ground game.

      Dixie Chicks, Amy Winehouse, Imus, and Lenny Bruce. Overcome evil with good.

      by vets74 on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 04:05:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site