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View Diary: Dear CNN: Don't Stop the Primaries; Don't Push Hillary to Quit (209 comments)

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  •  I want the diarist to answer one question (0+ / 0-)

    honestly. If Obama had lost 11 in a row wouldn't Hillary be asking for him to drop out. And wouldn't you agree. The media would have been all over him to leave. And Hillary would have been screaming for the sake of the party he should get out. Why is it any different now. The up coming states favor Obama. Only PA may favor Clinton but that race is closing. There is no way she catches him with pledged delegates, the popular vote, or most states won. So how does she get the nomination.

    •  Actually , I don't think so. Maybe media, not HRC (0+ / 0-)

      You are speculating that Hillary would do something we don't have evidence whe would do, as far as I know. I think the media scenario is likely because we see the evidence of it happening now.

      Yes, it does look good for Barry and has for a while. Also time usually fafors him in the polls.  When he starts campaigning in a state his numbers go way up there.  So he may do very well.  But just because he may is no reason to cut off the process.

      I don't understand why Obama people are so driven to do it, do you?

    •  one thing that should be considered (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itsadryheat, tornsneaker

      is that Obama could have been written off in this fashion a few months ago, much like you're trying to write off HRC now.  

      The fact that many of the remaining states currently favor him is no indication that they will once their primaries come around.  All it takes is one major negative against him to come out, and he may lose a lot of support.  The vote is close enough (and I've played around with the various delegate calculator tools out there over the last two days) that she very well may win if all states are considered and anything changes to bring Obama down.  And I'm not suggesting that HRC will have to bring anything up--just if something surfaces.  And, I'd say it's better to find that out now than after the nomination.

      anyone but a Republican (-8.00/-7.23)

      by slynch on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 09:24:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sweet reason! Scrap the diary. Post your comment! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slynch

        Thanks, slynch. Did you base your calculations on including either new primaries in FL and MI, or having them seated on appeal? Or without them.

         How do you treat supers? Every place I look uses different assumptions and numbers.  Did you start with 2208 needed to nomiminate or 2025?

        •  thanks! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itsadryheat

          I might diary this tomorrow, but I think your diary already gives lots of the 'what if something happens' kind of scenarios.  Like I said earlier--nice diary!  It got me thinking more about the consequences of Hillary dropping out early.

          The race is close enough it's ridiculous for people to suggest she drop out.  The 'will of the people' argument is getting very old with me.  Clearly, the 'will of the people' is indeterminate at this point.

          At this point, they are both viable candidates.  It seems like a damend if you do/damned if you don't problem for the party.  I understand the rationale for getting a nominee quickly so as to not divide us all further.  But, at the same time, rushing to nominate a less-vetted candidate can also be a problem.  Obama is not a saint.  He may not be dirty, but I seriously doubt he has NO skeletons in his closet, and we should make damn sure there aren't any before we drop our other serious candidate.

          anyone but a Republican (-8.00/-7.23)

          by slynch on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 09:49:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Please do diary tomorrow! (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            slynch

            The part I am so concerned about is the pressure that super delegates are starting to talk about. I don't want anybody trying to force them to commit to anything other than their best view of the best vote at the time.

            They were written in the rules to stop the party from hurting itself in the primaries.  It so often happened that the primaries were peopled by the most active party members and usually the most activist on issues.  And in the general election that group did not represent the part as a whole.

            In fact some of the primary choices were wholly unaceptable by the party as a whole and we kept losing the general to Republicans that Democrats put in office!  And that helped the Republicans build and gain power.

            Also we  were holding conventions where the Senator or Governor could not attend.  They did not want to run as delegates because they would win and take seats from the rank and file party workers whose names were less familiar.

            So a process of naming superdelegates was determined.  Then more regular folks could go to the conventions and also the elected and other leaders could still get to represent the state in the nomination.

            I know you know this stuff but it seems that so many of the young and new people who support Obama do not understand the process or the rules or the traditions.  Doesn't mean they don't need changing.  Just means that so many of the players don't know the rules of the game and they behave badly about it.

            Maybe any still lur,ing about can read this discussion about numbers and process and learn something.  Oh, no, I did NOT say that.  Supper, I need supper.

            •  ah, and I need some sleep! (0+ / 0-)

              I just redid the scenario with all the updated polling info from every state (according to the three most recent polls--all today, Hillary will win both TX and OH tomorrow), and it's still too close to call the overall nomination without assuming something drastic about the superdelegates.  And this doesn't even include consideration of the undecided voters nor each poll's margin of error.  It is simply too close to call.

              I'll play with this some more tonight and tomorrow morning and hopefully post a diary on it.  I have to admit that, if I were a betting person, the smart bet at the moment would probably be with Obama, but it is by no means a done deal, and that would be based solely on his current momentum and delegate tally.

              get some supper!

              anyone but a Republican (-8.00/-7.23)

              by slynch on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 10:26:35 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I mellowed. Get really rested. Nighto. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                slynch

                You're some warrior, slynch.  Thanks.

                •  Hey, itsadryheat, (0+ / 0-)

                  thanks for your nice comment; this is how all of us should be behaving on this site, given our common cause!  And again, thanks for putting together a nice diary.  It stimulated lots of good discussion (and some not so good, but that's par for the course these days, it seems).

                  I ended up not having enough time today to finish a diary.  After teaching and meeting with students, it was close to poll closing time.  I did START a diary, at least in terms of doing some statistical analyses of polling data and trying to project Clinton's gains for tonight and subsequently.  Looks like (and we'll see later how it turns out) Hillary will gain between 24 and 56 (pledged) delegates tonight.  Assuming all goes well, I'll be writing a diary tomorrow about the "will of the people."  I think this race is still way too close for HRC to be calling it quits (but again, we'll see how things turn out tonight--so far, so good for her)

                  anyone but a Republican (-8.00/-7.23)

                  by slynch on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:09:58 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  sorry--didn't answer the last part (0+ / 0-)

          well, in my playing around yesterday, I gave out remaining delegates based on the latest polls in each state.  For states where there were no polls, I split the delegates 50/50. (I also tried other scenarios).  I think I gave HRC her current proportion of the superdelegates, but I honestly don't remember.

          I just redid this again a minute ago.  Someone downthread suggested she has to win 65% of the remaining primaries to win, and get the vast majority of the supers.  So, I just tried 60% of all remaining states and a 50/50 split on the supers and got 2022 for Clinton and 1970 for Obama.  So, she DOESN'T have to win quite as much as the current meme is suggesting to pull it off, or at least have a 50+ delegate lead over Obama.

          (and I'm using the 2025 cutoff, assuming MI and FL aren't counted)

          anyone but a Republican (-8.00/-7.23)

          by slynch on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 09:57:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks, that helps a lot. If you add FL and MI (0+ / 0-)

            it gets even more plausible.  Last I heard, Fl wanted offered to re the primary by the local party didn;t have the money and the state couldn't help.  Dean said yesterday on TV that that was not going to be a problem; the national party would help them pay for it, if that was what they wanted.

             So, looks like one was or another they will have delegates.  Who will wim them I don't know.

            I thought they should call a state convention and have each county representative announce the county vote according to the people who actually went and voted/mailed in votes.  Ratify them as the results of the state convention meeting or state caucus and sent the delegaes who won in the original vote on to the convention.

            Michigan has alreay said I saw reported somewhere that it would hold caucuses.  Don't know if that is final.  Those two states are 366 plus supers added to the mix and the threshhold goes to 2208.

            However we look at it, it seems the media is confused and confusing on some of their numbers.  The Obama people are really presenting a warped picture of how to count and who should be counted.  Need more diaries on a full accounting of all the votes in various scenarios.  If they can take it in, it should be helpful!

            I thought what you did on this diary was very useful in trying to calm some of the mania and disarm some of the abuse. I was realy impressed at how you kept that up.   Who know, maybe we will make a little progress.

            I was surprised at how many of the comments called the diary a smear and hit piece.  I try to put myself in the commenters' place and I see things I wouldn't want to be true, but I would still want to know them.  It is the not wanting to know that I can't relate to easily.

             And I really can't relate to the unashamed abuse.  I though only freepers were cut from that cloth.  I have done two diaries here and in both cases the critics had posted before I could see it up.

            It was like they had alerts that directed them to be the first 11 posters to take over the diary and discredit it.  Then stick around to ride herd on resistance till it died and get off to the next one.  Good luck tomorrow. I'll look forward to your diary, if you get to it.

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