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View Diary: Dear CNN: Don't Stop the Primaries; Don't Push Hillary to Quit (209 comments)

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  •  sorry--didn't answer the last part (0+ / 0-)

    well, in my playing around yesterday, I gave out remaining delegates based on the latest polls in each state.  For states where there were no polls, I split the delegates 50/50. (I also tried other scenarios).  I think I gave HRC her current proportion of the superdelegates, but I honestly don't remember.

    I just redid this again a minute ago.  Someone downthread suggested she has to win 65% of the remaining primaries to win, and get the vast majority of the supers.  So, I just tried 60% of all remaining states and a 50/50 split on the supers and got 2022 for Clinton and 1970 for Obama.  So, she DOESN'T have to win quite as much as the current meme is suggesting to pull it off, or at least have a 50+ delegate lead over Obama.

    (and I'm using the 2025 cutoff, assuming MI and FL aren't counted)

    anyone but a Republican (-8.00/-7.23)

    by slynch on Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 09:57:36 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks, that helps a lot. If you add FL and MI (0+ / 0-)

      it gets even more plausible.  Last I heard, Fl wanted offered to re the primary by the local party didn;t have the money and the state couldn't help.  Dean said yesterday on TV that that was not going to be a problem; the national party would help them pay for it, if that was what they wanted.

       So, looks like one was or another they will have delegates.  Who will wim them I don't know.

      I thought they should call a state convention and have each county representative announce the county vote according to the people who actually went and voted/mailed in votes.  Ratify them as the results of the state convention meeting or state caucus and sent the delegaes who won in the original vote on to the convention.

      Michigan has alreay said I saw reported somewhere that it would hold caucuses.  Don't know if that is final.  Those two states are 366 plus supers added to the mix and the threshhold goes to 2208.

      However we look at it, it seems the media is confused and confusing on some of their numbers.  The Obama people are really presenting a warped picture of how to count and who should be counted.  Need more diaries on a full accounting of all the votes in various scenarios.  If they can take it in, it should be helpful!

      I thought what you did on this diary was very useful in trying to calm some of the mania and disarm some of the abuse. I was realy impressed at how you kept that up.   Who know, maybe we will make a little progress.

      I was surprised at how many of the comments called the diary a smear and hit piece.  I try to put myself in the commenters' place and I see things I wouldn't want to be true, but I would still want to know them.  It is the not wanting to know that I can't relate to easily.

       And I really can't relate to the unashamed abuse.  I though only freepers were cut from that cloth.  I have done two diaries here and in both cases the critics had posted before I could see it up.

      It was like they had alerts that directed them to be the first 11 posters to take over the diary and discredit it.  Then stick around to ride herd on resistance till it died and get off to the next one.  Good luck tomorrow. I'll look forward to your diary, if you get to it.

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