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View Diary: Pennsylvania - C - 52, O - 37!! New Rasmussen (258 comments)

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  •  You guys, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    markusd, ExStr8

    and your ridiculous "math." Tell me this: why do you keep referring to the "math." Is there a rule that I'm unaware of which states whoever leads in pledged delegates at the end of the process will be the nominee? NO! Isn't it the "rules" that the Obama camp keeps returning to to explain why Fla and Mich delegates shouldnt be seated? Lets be consistent folks.  Does the fact that Obama may be leading by 50 pledged delegates at the end of all this really mean a damn thing? No, and you know it, that's what's so laughable about all this. With a grand total of OVER 4,000 delegates available, a 50-100 pledged delegate at the end of this is going to be absolutely negligible.

    This race is now about momentum and popular vote. Hillary will probably win Pennsylvania. This will mean she would have won the FIRST, THE SECOND, THE THIRD, THE FOURTH, THE SEVENTH, AND EIGHTH largest states. The seventh largest went to Obama (Ill.), the sixth largest, in my humble opinion, will most likely go to Clinton (Pa.)

    Hillary is going to make the argument that she won SEVEN of the EIGHT largest states (the one she lost is the state in which Obama is a Senator). Obama's hope will be that he can sweep through Miss and Wy (which he will), while also taking Indiana, NC, and either WV or KY (both of which probably favor Clinton). This is going to depend on whoever has the momentum and popular vote in June. This is going to come down to whether or not Hillary can close the delegate gap, not whether or not he's ahead. This race is going to continue, for a long time, and all this talk of "math is on Obama's side" is bullshit - cause it's not. She can't win, AND NEITHER CAN HE!

    "A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward." - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

    by bawhite on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 11:22:36 AM PST

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    •  It will be more than a 50 delegate lead (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tetris, cybrestrike

      It will probably be over 100.  And Obama should also win the popular vote by a decent margin.  The superdelegates will line up behind Obama.

      FL and MI won't matter.  They will get "seated" one way or another, but even with a re-vote Obama will win MI handily.  FL will be closer than you think.

      Hillary needs to earn pledged delegates "by the dozen" to take this thing.  She's not catching up fast enough.

      •  Ok, (0+ / 0-)

        since you seem to know so much about the future, I'll just call you Nostradamus (sp?) We'll see how you "hunches" turn out. PS, i've got plenty of "hunches" too.

        "A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward." - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

        by bawhite on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 11:42:00 AM PST

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        •  we can place a wager (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Tetris

          My predictions - like everyone else - have not been perfect.  NPR just had two stories in a row at the top of "All Things Considered" that I think are telling.

          1.)  Texas - who really won?  (Obama, not Hillary - probably by 3 delegates.)

          2.)  Obama raises $55 million - in Feb!!!

          Hillary got the "glory" on March 4th.  A false declaration of victory in Texas, and she didn't win nearly enough delegates in OH or RI.

          Obama has picked up another 4 (at the least) superdelegates today as well.  March 4th was only a minor speedbump breaking the 12-state winning streak, but it was not enough.

          •  Well we shall (0+ / 0-)

            see, oh wise one.

            "A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward." - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

            by bawhite on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 07:08:42 PM PST

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            •  better wise (0+ / 0-)

              than wise-ass.  (i'm normally not negative, but you asked for it.  maybe you are channeling Hillary?)  

              I read your "Apprehension diary" and my only response to you is that Obama has a history of success bringing people together in the IL Senate to pass progressive legislation.  When he is elected president, he should have decent majorities in both houses to work with and get passed a ton of important legislation - and it will be progressive.  

              Obama is not taking lobbyist money.  He's not aligned with Mark Penn, James Carville and the DLC, who want to do the same K-street bullshit as the Rethugs.  He needs to bring people together, but that won't stop him from making the right judgments.

    •  Just because the math doesn't favor (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tetris

      Clinton doesn't mean it's ridiculous.

      At the end of this primary season.  Obama is going to have more pledged delegates than Clinton.  

      Then it's up to the supers.  They are not gonna reverse that lead by overturning the people choice.  They are not stupid and they know doing that is gonna  seriously damage the party come Nov.  

      That's why everyone is talking about the math.

      •  I'll disagree... (0+ / 0-)

        The superdelegates are not going to fill pressure to flock to Obama because of a 50-100 pledged delegate lead, especially considering there are over 4,000 delegates total. That number is negligible. It will come down to who has the momentum, and perhaps, who leads in the popular vote.

        And ps, anyone that thinks Florida and Mich delegates won't get sat, and the DNC will leave it at that, is dreaming.

        "A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward." - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

        by bawhite on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 11:44:18 AM PST

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        •  wow (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          theran, Tetris

          you really have no clue do you?

          You think the superdelegates (who are mostly white) are going to overturn a primary season where a black canidate won fair and square?  That may not be totally fair.. but that will be the perception among many

          that is SUICIDE

          •  Well, (0+ / 0-)

            I think you have no clue, especially if you believe that Obama is going to have superdelegates flocking to him if Hillary has the big 'MO' at the end of this.

            100 pledged delegates will mean SHIT if his campaign is perceived as being weaker than it was during its prime (the 30 days between Feb 5 and March 4). Sorry to tell you, it's a new race.

            "A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward." - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

            by bawhite on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 11:50:54 AM PST

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            •  I've got to disagree here. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              theran, Tetris

              Obama's going to end up with the popular vote, a lead in pledged delegates, and wins in more states than Clinton.

              And you think the SD's are going to step in and coronate Clinton?  I don't think so.

              When the numbers add up that way, there's only one word for it.

              Scoreboard.

              Clinton's done, and she's prolonging the inevitable.  If somehow she wins by a backroom deal, then I'm through with the Democratic Party.  Forever.

              "It's better to vote for what you want, and not get it, than to vote for what you don't want, and get it." Eugene Debs, 1912.

              by cybrestrike on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 11:55:44 AM PST

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        •  The Fl and Mi thing is gonna work (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          theran, Tetris

          itself out, agreed.

          You can disagree with the math all you want.  But it's a fact.

          Clinton would have to clobber Obama by 20+  points in all the remaining states just to tie or pull close to him.  

          I'm telling you the super delegates are not gonna give Hillary the nomination if she is behind Obama in pledged delegates.  There are  multiple sources on that.

          Here is one  

          http://www.newsweek.com/...

        •  1 Vote (0+ / 0-)

          All Obama needs is 1 pledged delegate and 1 popular vote lead over Clinton.

          That's how Democracy works. The Democratic party isn't going to overturn the clear popular winner, and clarity is ONE vote.

          Deny it all you want, its the truth pure and simple.

          Obama/Richardson '08! *Richardson as VP (1) latinos, (2) SW states, (3) foreign policy exp, (4) exec exp

          by Tetris on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 05:44:26 PM PST

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