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View Diary: More on the SUSA map (288 comments)

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  •  I agree, Obama community organizing experience .. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, DocGonzo, MAORCA

    will be taken to a level never before seen in American politics leading up to the general election. In the 2004 election bush got like 63 million and John Kerry 59 million. Barack Obama will easily get over 70 million and may even approach 80 million in the popular vote. This will translate to a landslide victory and a down ticket wipe out of republicans in national, state and local races.

    John McCain will be lucky to break the 60 million mark in the general election with at least 20% of wingnuts voting third party or sitting out at home still throwing a fit over their candidate whom they can't stand.

    •  Blowout Turnout (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, aj4runner

      The 2004 election turned out 60.7% of elgible voters, 121M (62,040,610 Bush vs 59,028,111Kerry). If Democrats increase by 50%, that's 88.5M, while 10% fewer Republicans would be 55.8M. That's 61.3:38.7% of 144.3M total, which would be about a 72.3% turnout if the number of eligible voters were to be the same as in 2004.

      But lots of those 2008 voters are newly eligible, not to mention population growth (and an aging population means eligible voters are growing faster than the general population), especially among that postulated 50% increase in Democratic voters. So actually I'm predicting under 70% turnout, while 2004 featured over 60% turnout. Entirely possible, and probably an underestimate.

      I wonder what it looks like if that 88M Democratic voters starts pushing closer to 100M, which was about the entire 2000 election turnout for all parties.

      That starts to look not so much like just "a revolution", but more like the Russian or French revolutions :).

      "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

      by DocGonzo on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 03:08:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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