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View Diary: More on the SUSA map (288 comments)

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  •  AR is my biggest problem with this map (1+ / 0-)
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    MAORCA

    No way it goes from solid Clinton to solid McCain.

    2 Democratic Senators, the state will always be at least close to in play for a dem.

    This is just too early.

    God and ego are not equivalent expressions of reality.

    by Othniel on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 03:31:03 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  it didn't budge in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

      let's speak plainly

      In the primaries, Obama has done well in two types of states -- states with a lot of african-americans and states with none.

      Unfortunately, in the general election, the states with lots of african-americans are lost causes.  Either dem will do well with blacks in AL-MS-SC-GA, but get crushed among whites, and there are more whites.

      So the states he can plausibly bring into the fold are in the plains and the mountain west -- the white/hispanic states demographically.  Of those, I think the most likely to flip are NM or NV, and Hillary won those states.  Hispanic voters are the key there.

      The next most likely to flip is CO.  Obama has a big edge there and its a bigger prize.

      The great plains are solid red, I don't care what one poll says.  

      I think the other winnable states are IA, OH, FL, MO, AR, WV, VA, NC.  Hillary's more solid in OH, FL, WV and locks up AR.  Obama does better in VA, NC, and IA.  I put them equal in MO.

      They have slightly different paths to victory but they both have paths.

      All I can say is Hillary's got the only lock on a red state so far.        

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